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ES short term trading 6-28-10


I just created a Market Profile using the RTH sessions for ES from last week, Monday through Friday. So the 1 week Value Areas are:

VAH=1102.00
POC=1075.50
VAL=1063.50

This week's Economic Events.
Originally posted by BruceM

so that's On..I never followed them but would appreciate any feedback on O/N triples ;


Ok, I guess I considered it more morning pre-trading session than O/N. I will make note of that for future reference as part of the rules of triples.
you may discover a better rule Piker as I said I have never looked at them...the only thing I have noticed is there are MORE of them in O/N because of the lower Volume....


sure wish I could remember the other person who was investigating O/N trips......
Originally posted by Piker

Originally posted by BruceM

so that's On..I never followed them but would appreciate any feedback on O/N triples ;


Ok, I guess I considered it more morning pre-trading session than O/N. I will make note of that for future reference as part of the rules of triples.
just an opinion fwiw... to consider rth ,as 'different' than O/N presupposes that PA is dependent on time of day. I believe, price action is price action regardless of when it occurs. Thats why i look at the avg daily range for the entire day, not just the rth.
i can tell that several times i have used Bruces techniques (air, ratchets, and triples) in the O/N session which equal success. My feeling is ,if it works ,it works,regardless of when
Bruce,

I had a question about your fade trade this morning. You initiated a long at 71.50, then added at 69.50, then again at 67.25. The market finally bottomed at 66.50. I don't know how many contracts you entered at each price level, but even at 1 each, you would have been in some drawdown (enough to meake me nervous) before the market turned around.

I know you are typically successful with these types of morning fade trades, but if you should happen to be wrong and the market continued to tank, at what point would you have taken a loss on a trade like this?
Originally posted by koolblue

i can tell that several times i have used Bruces techniques (air, ratchets, and triples) in the O/N session which equal success. My feeling is ,if it works ,it works,regardless of when


You seem to trade and sleep at odd hours, so if anyone would know about O/N trading, it would be you.



Bruce is right, there are triples all over the place during the night, but I always assumed low volume tended to negate a lot of price action rules and indications. It's good to know that you have seen success even during the O/N session. As for me, I need my beauty sleep.
I think we can agree to disagree as I think Price action acts differently at different times of day and when there is more volume.....

No other reason there can be so mant triples in O/N but not in day session....over a large sample you will always foind more trips there....so I guess I'm always looking for a reason...

I don't know but respect your input Kool...


New Low range bar was 2 points with a high of 72.50....nice down fake for those trading in the middle here for reference..trade back below 70.50 will change the character of the day now....
I start out smaller and get heavier as it goes down.....I would have been nervous too if a minus 10 hit before a pop up....Trading from air pocket probabilities is hard I was wacthing that $tick trend too...but anything can happen and does!!
Just for reference Piker, I took a 4 contract hit at 17 points each on a spike about 1.5 years ago......so I mention that because I am not afraid to get smacked hard....the day after a morning trend day is some of the best trading..so if you are agressive you recover quite fast if you just take the trades...

You bring up an excellent point and all should be aware of the fact that we could have kept dropping.....9 ( 5 minute bars ) down would be a lot and the high end of a morning drop....
Originally posted by Piker

Bruce

I had a question about your fade trade this morning. You initiated a long at 71.50, then added at 69.50, then again at 67.25. The market finally bottomed at 66.50. I don't know how many contracts you entered at each price level, but even at 1 each, you would have been in some drawdown (enough to meake me nervous) before the market turned around.

I know you are typically successful with these types of morning fade trades, but if you should happen to be wrong and the market continued to tank, at what point would you have taken a loss on a trade like this?
YEAH, I guess its just a matter of opinion, but if you assign differing 'importance' to overnight action, how bought all the times a key high or low was achieved O/N but not on the rth? I hold open the possibility i could be wrong ,of course,(wouldnt be the first time!) but i can say my experience is that tecniques that work in the rth ,do seem to work On . Volume is slower ,hence , so is the price action (most times like a rth in slo mo) but that's part of the attractiveness to me.
Piker, one last clue to my madness...you will find that some of my best add ons will come as the SECOND air pocket is forming...before the 5 minute bar closes......like today.....

I start with an initial position and then will add two more times....usually no more..
Yes, the front month unless there are only a few days to expiration. And I'm looking for immediacy in the move, up or down, of decent magnitude ... preferably within 1 to 2 (sometimes 3)days. And that's if I don't have a strong directional bias ... which I don't currently ... just a mild bias to the down side which comes primarily from how individual stocks have performed in the past couple of days and how their charts currently look "heavy" for lack of a better term.
Originally posted by Piker

Originally posted by MonkeyMeat

Just an observation guys. Yeah, there's the cycle of expansion and contraction of daily bar ranges (and the same on other time frames as well) ... but, look at the SPY chart and also the ES chart that includes all trading hours. The market is likely to have a decent magnitude move out of the current range ... my hope being that tonight's trading stays narrow and that Tuesday opens inside of this range bound activity. Then it's a matter of how ya play it ... directionally or tossing on straddle or strangle option contracts ... and even potentially legging out of them. Here's hoping for continued range constriction tonight and opening into tomorrow!!



Just curious MM,

Do you use front-month contracts when you put on straddles/strangles?