ES short term trading 6-29-10

LOL well, i going to start out with a big essay on why i thought we'd see a surprisingly large down move today but the market has frontrunned me again!....

seems unlikely that those trips will stay like that given the bounce off the single prints above

Originally posted by BruceM

so what is your take on the $tick now Phileo...they mess me up still...seems to be trying to form a trend channel up...but we'd need to see constitent readings up at 700 or so to change this quickly to up...


you had a great entry there with those high plus 1000 ticks for your short...well done

Hi Bruce,

Uh, thanks, but unfortunately i didn't get filled, so that was just armchair trading - I still do the real time analysis to help me keep a pulse on the mkt.

As for tick, that excursion to 1047 was on the 1st +ve TICK extreme for the whole session. You gotta wonder how many more of these +ve TICK extremes are we going to see in current mkt conditions.

I see the TICK as a yardstick of how agressive the buyers/ sellers are. eg. How much does price move given a TICk movement say to +500.

TICK trends are more indicative of buy/sell programs, but can occur randomly, so there's not much more to read into that, IMO.

Another example, we've recently had two movements to -ve TICK extremes (ie. -1000), but price could not stay below 1041.75, so that tells me we are closer to the end than the beginning of this current sell sequence (1047 - 1042 drop)

Originally posted by phileo

Another example, we've recently had two movements to -ve TICK extremes (ie. -1000), but price could not stay below 1041.75, so that tells me we are closer to the end than the beginning of this current sell sequence (1047 - 1042 drop)

now we have a whole cluster of -ve TICK extremes, so all bets are off.
When the EMA's and VWAP are pointing down like that, the mkt is prone to ambush selling like what we're seeing.
Obviously 1038 is an important number here.
Given how crude oil and the Euro are acting a bit stronger, I'd still claim that 1038 is the LoD. Other than that, don't really know what's going to happen next - lunch hour trading?

Here's an example of a transition structure that Dr.Brett wrote about in his blog.

Cluster of -ve TICK extremes (highlighted by red arrow), then all of a sudden, price is very responsive to several TICK movements to +500 (note it's not even a +ve TICK extreme). This is saying sellers are no longer agressive, potentiallly a turning point here.

To be sure, I'd like to see a -ve TICK extreme on a higher low. That's probably where I'll be looking for my next trade.

Originally posted by koolblue

Click image for original size

KoolBlue, that recent low was 1039.25, off by 2 ticks of your projection 1038.75, Nice !!

Originally posted by phileo



To be sure, I'd like to see a -ve TICK extreme on a higher low. That's probably where I'll be looking for my next trade.

Long 1042, 2pt stop, target 1044

Originally posted by phileo

Originally posted by phileo



To be sure, I'd like to see a -ve TICK extreme on a higher low. That's probably where I'll be looking for my next trade.

Long 1042, 2pt stop, target 1044

Out 1042.25, +1 tick... lunch time trading not my forte.....

yeah, Phileo, but my order was at 1038.75, so my stop would protect me if it went to 1036!(i always start with a 3 point stop). ive been missing by 1-2 ticks all day! In fact, ive been dead on since globex last night and have one handle to show for it!...sheese! hate days like that! lol

LOL.. I know what you mean Bruce... if i had the guts to hold on my 1074.25 short from last nite id be rich! But thats ok, i'll take my nickles and dimes as long as im taking and not giving. Fwiw, after abottom here or more likely soon tomorrow the gann day today was supposed to be a low, and longer term i expect a rebound into friday, giving bulls false hope, but we;ll see. God,
if only i could have gotten that 1048.00 short(i think the market stalled at 1047.25 or .50 ) i would have held for at least 41. That would have been sweet, but i guess theres always tomorrow!