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ES short term trading 6-30-10


In my opinion the market tipped its hand yesterday signalling lower ,possibly much lower, prices coming in the next few weeks/months.Try as i might i cant find any longer term projection, or for that matter, fib relationship of any kind that says 1030 could be the bottom of the decline which started in April!. Therefore, from a kools tools perpective, There are lower prices coming soon! so like everyone else, i expect an oversold market to muster a dead cat bounce of some sort ,but likely from slightly lower prices first. The closest numbers i can find are the original high of 1129.50 to its initial move low was 1103.25. this has a 4.236 termination ratio of around 1018.50 and if A was from 1211.25 to 1032.75 ans B was complete at 1129.50 then C=.618A AT 1019.25. Look folks, i know im really reaching here but,1030 is NOT 'THE BOTTOM'And i dont think 1018-19 is either (we'll see the 900 's at some point.) but this zone might be good for a dead cat bounce. right now i have short term projections around 1023.50-1024.75 which could do the same. Its also possible of course that the bounce has already started , we'll just have to see what develops today . Anything is possible today, but by all rights seasonally thurs and friday should have some upside pressure. The main point of this discourse is that much lower prices are ahead in the next month or so (950-960?) in my opinion. As always time will tell!... good luck gang!
Originally posted by BruceM

everyone buying the 38 and selling the 40.50 area...but what happens when they stop? They will run it....no more selling fades on moves up from here...just holding this last one to see if I can get the breakdown from 38 area to hour lows....


How many fade trades do you typically do in the morning? Today it seems like you've done several cycles, not just the initial fade.
they run out an hour high or low virtually everyday.....I stink at predicting which one....so I try to hold a runner to get the run out when I have a bias......I getthe direction of the run out WRONG a lot......so since I am short for hour lows...they wiill probably go for the hour high first.......
Originally posted by rburns

Bruce could you explain the hour runout as I am confused as what to look for. TIA
watch the third 15 minute bar of the day (rth)because it is the lowest rang ebar so far and implies consolidation...agressive traders will try to buy that high for the hour run out up top...and some of us are long and watching that bars high for stop placement area!!
yes Piker... I am always very agressive after a large range/trend and a first move up.....so following yesterday...we can welocme challenging days like yesterday becaus ethe day after chops and is great for us faders
Originally posted by Piker

Originally posted by BruceM

everyone buying the 38 and selling the 40.50 area...but what happens when they stop? They will run it....no more selling fades on moves up from here...just holding this last one to see if I can get the breakdown from 38 area to hour lows....


How many fade trades do you typically do in the morning? Today it seems like you've done several cycles, not just the initial fade.
For those who like the low range bar CONCEPT...look at the second 5 minute bar of the day....it is the lowest range so far......can u use that to see why we might have stopped on this downleg into that range bar.....? Getting below that bars lows will be good for bears even if they come back and take out it;s highs again....




Low range = consolidation...nuff said on that...hopefully u can use the concept somehow!!
you guys are doing good. haven't been able to trade just watching...

check out the $tick chart


Click image for original size
2010 06 30 toscharts
flat now and a bad way to get flat...would you want to buy a breakout of highs with a plus 1000 tick..? not me...but I took the stop out on my last short contract as it was the right thing to do
will try one last sell if they can break that hour high soon...that double 5 minute low will be a great ultimate target if we are truely in a consolidation day...that double low is 36.25......hopefully we can find the short signal to get it
Originally posted by BruceM

flat now and a bad way to get flat...would you want to buy a breakout of highs with a plus 1000 tick..? not me...but I took the stop out on my last short contract as it was the right thing to do


It looks like traders did try to grab the 15min low-range bar high (~1040.50) as you stated previously.
back but just for a few.. i see we hit my 2.618 at 1036.25 dead nuts!..hope everyone went long there!
"went short at 38 even. I had a bearish bias this afternoon and after the fake breakout to the upside it confimed me going short"