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ES short term trading 6-30-10


In my opinion the market tipped its hand yesterday signalling lower ,possibly much lower, prices coming in the next few weeks/months.Try as i might i cant find any longer term projection, or for that matter, fib relationship of any kind that says 1030 could be the bottom of the decline which started in April!. Therefore, from a kools tools perpective, There are lower prices coming soon! so like everyone else, i expect an oversold market to muster a dead cat bounce of some sort ,but likely from slightly lower prices first. The closest numbers i can find are the original high of 1129.50 to its initial move low was 1103.25. this has a 4.236 termination ratio of around 1018.50 and if A was from 1211.25 to 1032.75 ans B was complete at 1129.50 then C=.618A AT 1019.25. Look folks, i know im really reaching here but,1030 is NOT 'THE BOTTOM'And i dont think 1018-19 is either (we'll see the 900 's at some point.) but this zone might be good for a dead cat bounce. right now i have short term projections around 1023.50-1024.75 which could do the same. Its also possible of course that the bounce has already started , we'll just have to see what develops today . Anything is possible today, but by all rights seasonally thurs and friday should have some upside pressure. The main point of this discourse is that much lower prices are ahead in the next month or so (950-960?) in my opinion. As always time will tell!... good luck gang!
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873
Interesting ,profitable, tho somewhat boring day so far. Im suspecting next objective is to get that 44.50 high , but what happens after will tell us more.
.. i just noticed that projection is one of your rats too, right Bruce?
Originally posted by koolblue

back but just for a few.. i see we hit my 2.618 at 1036.25 dead nuts!..hope everyone went long there!


I am embarrassed to report that I went long 1036.75, but exited way too soon (again) at 1037.75.
Losing that 1pt right off the bat this morning has messed with my head.
Originally posted by koolblue

Interesting ,profitable, tho somewhat boring day so far. Im suspecting next objective is to get that 44.50 high , but what happens after will tell us more.
.. i just noticed that projection is one of your rats too, right Bruce?


If this current consolidation/pullback/retracement stays above 1041.5, then we should see at least a tag of O/N highs and possibly 1047
Originally posted by phileo

Originally posted by koolblue

back but just for a few.. i see we hit my 2.618 at 1036.25 dead nuts!..hope everyone went long there!


I am embarrassed to report that I went long 1036.75, but exited way too soon (again) at 1037.75.
Losing that 1pt right off the bat this morning has messed with my head.
never be embarresed about a winning trade... a win is a win!.. id like to buy at about 39.50 if they push it that low ,but im not sure it can get past 40.50
HERES WHY....
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well, she went further than i thought.. not good, so i'll exit quick instead of trying for 44.75...
long from 39.50 but exiting 40.50 due to poor entry ..and i gotta get some sleep before work!
I was waiting for that39.00 number to hit for a while now.

I tihnk its a goodlong spot to go get those TRIPS at 42.75.

What do you think?

Also Kool what do you mean you'll be exiting early because it ran further than you thought,can you elaborate a little?
sure,pal. I just got skittish because it exceeded my projection. which was 1039.25 ... one or 2 ticks is not a big deal but more always gets me nervous.. im out now at 40.50 one handle on 2 es so im leaving today with 8 handles ..not bad for me .. as far as your trade goes,i just dont know.. the market is really trying to decide right here what to do,but i wish you the best of luck! the problem is the 5 min chart is getting pretty oversold (which is good for you) but the 30 min chart is really dead nuetral and could travel quite a ways in either direction!.. sorry i cant be of more help. I will say this tho, it would be surprising if they dont test the overnite high at least some time today(1044.50)
"went short at 38 even. I had a bearish bias this afternoon and after the fake breakout to the upside it confimed me going short"