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ES short term trading 7-1-10


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877
Hey Paul..that WOULD have been second 30 minute air posket...so it naturally filled...
phileo,
I'm looking at 1 min ES and $tick and at 11:08 am lpw price for ES, I see positive divergence in a hihger $tick than previous swing Low in price.

now price has exceeded prior swing H at 1013.00

if there is a retracement to 1009 handle that finds support, upside to 1017-1020 possible as shorts scramble.
high tick into that air may attract sellers again
Trade completed
Lost my connection about 1011. :)
Originally posted by phileo

something interesting that i noticed.
3 times i observed price move up from 1007 even while TICK was dropping below -900. That is a significant +ve divergence, indicating buyers are willing to absorb supply at that level.


Here's my theory:
Big money will pick a level where they are willing to absorb supply.
So during these massive selloffs, they need to pick a price level way below "fair value".
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esbottomjul1


Note the massive volume spikes at 1008.5 and 1010.5. Big money is willing to absorb supply there, so that is also "unfair value", ie. too much of a discount, so we should see a RALLY from those levels, if my theory is correct.

The first +ve TICK extreme all session just occurred at 1012, thus my theory is correct thus far. Let's see how this plays out.
Originally posted by PAUL9

phileo,
I'm looking at 1 min ES and $tick and at 11:08 am lpw price for ES, I see positive divergence in a hihger $tick than previous swing Low in price.

now price has exceeded prior swing H at 1013.00

if there is a retracement to 1009 handle that finds support, upside to 1017-1020 possible as shorts scramble.


Yeah, i saw that too, but the most interesting part for me was how price actually went up when TICK was dropping below -900. The only explanation for that is buyers are absorbing supply - and a massive amount of supply at that.
took one more at 16.25 print...
I understand, phileo, good observation.

bummer for me, was hoping for a retracement (roughly 50% of lift from 1007 to 1114), but it neve unfolded.
Testing 1017 right about now (S1=1016.75), but 1012 needs to hold in order for this rally to continue.

bonds are testing a prior support level, and the Euro is consolidating at the top end of a significant resistance zone (it actually rallied while ES was selling off), so things are looking good so far for this rally from 1007. I think a good target for this rally would be the gap fill 1024.5

opening price = 1026
session hi = 1029.75
Originally posted by koolblue

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877

... LOOKED FOR 1030.50 (MISSED BY 3 TICKS) hell, i was sleeping anyway!... BUT A BINGO O/N THE DOWNSIDE....
Thanks Nigel, I missed that from the chart:

last post, going to keep trading not posting... no one pays it much mind anyway! good luck gang!


@koolblue - you have plenty of silent followers. Keep posting!

Also, look at your reputation on the Members List - as I type this you are the second most voted for trader on this site which means that other traders here think that what you are posting is high quality.