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Es short term trading 7-13-10


short 86.50 in O/N as this is a secondary Resistance point....... up top there is 94 - 95, then 1101 and the 1108 - 1110 . we know a big move is coming with the reduced volatility......and we will gap up most likely in RTH. I don't want to get caught in a trend.

Looking for 81.50 to be tested in RTH.
mea culpa mea culpa, Yesterday I broke one of my own rules, rules that I have developed over years of trading. My 3 tick rule dictates that once price gets within 3 ticks of target, take some off the board and tighten stop. Greed made me want that 77.75 on the .618 extension of the opening 15 minute range. 77.25 printed and I did nothing.... there were other mistakes I made yesterday but I'll save them for another confession.



yesterday, there was a test of 50% of the previous month. This is a meaningful level.

I mentioned yesterday that the first test is usually rejected, causes some sort of a retracement in a search for confirmation that buyers are interested.

Today is critical. If price is going to break above the 50% level (1075.00) it is going to have to display some PA that seems difficult to believe will happen but here are some things I will be looking for:

No one knows what will happen... these are potentially bullish "tells" that would increase my confidence for bullish PA.

The first potentially bullish PA would be if price gaps up and opens above .4 times 5 day ATR added to previous close (if open is above 1084.00) according to Steenbarger article I read years ago, only 40% chance of gap fill.

A gap UP that is unable to fill keeps bears on the defensive, sometimes they can hang out with losing short positions until the last hour of trading, but then, any advances (if there has been no gap fill) can force them to close positions by buying.

Here are some other things that would be potentially bullish (might act as confirmation of a leg higher).

If the low set in the first 5 minutes is not undercut in the morning.

and then...

If the market makes a new high in the 11-12 window.

Another thing I look at is the H vs Open. Once the Open of the RTH occurs, add the 5 day average difference of H vs O, today that number is 12.05.

so when the market opens, add 12 to the open, if price manages to get above that level before 11am (This is the part I simply can't believe will happen), then this is bullish action to me. Unfortunately, a move to a new high in the 11-12 window usually marks the beginning of boring sideways for most of the rest of the day until after 1 or 2pm.

77-73 is support.
this is options expiration week...could make things a bit crazy too...you had some other ideas for Option ex week I believe Paul..


If I can get RTH shorts then 82.50 is the key point (revising my first target to that) as that is the true LV breakout point in O/N session.


This could be one of those days where the options folks want to suck out premium...not sure...
so far the only folks who are getting it right are the seasonality folks......the cycle folks blew it big time, my long term MP work is not holding back the rally so that is not working in my opinion.....tomorrow is the grand daddy of all the seasonals if you follow that and that in theory would be a strong bullish day along with today....

Personally I don't follow most of it as I can't seem to find anything that works outside of the day time frame.


Yesterday they opened it and rallied it right up....that won't happen like that today
Click image for original size
esweeklyjun25


I still believe 1080-1081 is a major resistance/congestion area, but that was dealt with by gapping above it.
We have an 11pt gap up as I type, this is about the daily range for the past two days. Therefore, I believe it is lower probability that the gap will fill.
Last couple of sessions we had an NR14 followed by a 2BNR, so this is a bonafide breakout today.

Therefore, I will be looking for reasons to buy today.

The safest area to buy would be 1080-1081 zone of prior congestion.
1084 area may also offer potential support, but I'm not as confident about that level as I am about 1080-81.

Failing that, the 1089.5 level may offer some quickie short scalps. Any shorts that I take today, will have much smaller targets, as I too don't want to be caught in a potential trend day up.
OpEx week
there used to be a pretty regular pattern, whatever happened on Tuesday saw a minor extension at the open on Wednesday but then reversed by the afternoon.

One other thing I have done some studying on (eyeballing charts so i can't give you exact %ages. I look at range on Monday and if price can print at the 618 extension in the RTH, then a move to to a full 100% usually occurs. unfortunately, there is no timetable for this and

also, there are gap fill players who will be willing to sell the open gap (if it gets filled)

That open gap was created by the down opening on 6-24-10. The Gap is 1083.75 to 1087.00, Uh-Oh, I guess I should have paid more attention to this becauise that level is also close of MAY (83 area)
re previous comment, almost worthless to mention the range extension of Monday.

618 extension of Monday's RTH means if the ES prints at or above 1083.89, then it has high odds of printing 1088.00 (1088.00 is Monday's RTH range added to Monday's RTH H)

Uh-Oh, my data feed just went down.
Originally posted by BruceM

so far the only folks who are getting it right are the seasonality folks......the cycle folks blew it big time, my long term MP work is not holding back the rally so that is not working in my opinion.....tomorrow is the grand daddy of all the seasonals if you follow that and that in theory would be a strong bullish day along with today....

Personally I don't follow most of it as I can't seem to find anything that works outside of the day time frame.


Yesterday they opened it and rallied it right up....that won't happen like that today


well bruce, you're half right when you say that that won't happen like that today.... they waited for almost 5min. before popping it up this time, LOL!

Paul, I have the open as 1086.75, so 1098.75 would be the number to watch, correct ?
s 87.50 in RTH...Ticks strong at open....
nasty....
stop out those who shorted 1088 preMkt, and then go down.

It's not near any of my levels, so sitting on my hands for now...
phileo, I have 86.25 for open (this is tick by tick data)

I can't believe it will come into play this morning. (and that opinion means nothing).

The current PA (3rd bar heading lower) is not a positive in my book.

price can move into the gap, but undercutting the first 5min Low is not the super bullish steamroller of bears.
Two days of up move with low volume....
Conventional analysis says the market is losing steam....but
the market continues to rally.
Anyone here started placing their shorts?