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ES Short Term Trading 7-16-10


A Monkey’s Ramblings on a map to somewhere

*Red Lines are Price Action Support/Resistance lines
*Cyan Dashed Lines are Weekly Pivot lines
*Fib Retracement of 786 is shown with Green line(s)
*Yellow(ish) lines are a Pattern showing both a small ascending triangle BUT more importantly, some range contraction of sideways trading for a few days
*Volume bars are displayed as lighter Blue across the horizontal axis (overlapping some of the other components of the chart)

Click image for original size
es daily for 71610


So, that’s the layout.

Yeppers, it’s option expiry Friday, which always can toss a monkey wrench into “normal” expectations.

1080-1100 seems to be a current significant range boundary. What’s more important to my view is, after a decent magnitude run up during the past week and a half or so, the market’s challenged and still challenging the 1100 price with daily bars of market contraction. This 1100 zone/level coincides not only with a PASR level I’ve got, but also with a 786 Fib retracement for those that follow fibs, and this Weekly R1 @ 1097. Daily R1 is 1101 for Friday fwiw.

After reviewing a bunch of individual stock charts, most of them are over extended to the long side or have a messy bullish pattern setup at best. Three that I ran across that looked only semi-decent were: AZO, NFLX and BIDU. The Russell-2000 was weaker than the other major indices for what it’s worth. As for volume, the rally’s been anemic as every dog and his brother has been intimating on their website and blogs. Don’t forget that we’re entering the Summer slow down though.

ES price is trading between the 50 and 200 sma and slightly above a down trend line (none of which are on the chart … it’s got more than enough lines and pretty colors to confuse me). So those “indicators” are mixed and messy.

Anyway, look to Bruce and Kool and others for intraday MP mapping etc. And hope this is helpful to some extent. Depending upon the overnight trading and the open, I'm looking at a potential straddle or strangle on the SPY.
Here's what I see as bigger pic significant levels addressing the above daily chart ... and after also drilling down into other time frames.

Walking it down on the bigger picture:
1115 PASR
1102-1097 PASR, 786 Fib Rtc and Wkly Pvt, Daily R1 Pvt (yeah, big zone, I know)
1084 PASR Zone
1080-1077 PASR, Trend line (small yellow up sloping)
1075 PASR and Ratchet
Also, just wanted to give a "shout out" to Paul and Phileo (and others) who've been posting and sharing recently and regularly on the daily analysis and calls on the ES!!!

Great stuff!!!

I'm trading for the failed "even steven" today in early trade..good odds they will come back for 90.50 in the O/N or RTH as we have peak volume and a gap there.....
long 83.50...will add on a good low $tick if needed
just watching right now...

5 day average of L versus the Open calcs to 1080.15 for today.
runners getting no love off the opening range...new longs at 81.50...filling in the 'b' ..dangerous place
range air filled from yd at 82.50
added 79.50..air at 82.50
I do not like OpEx and usually just do research and watch...


now that price has shown no ability to rebound (I know that can happen at anytime), but 2 pt undercut of 5 day average of L versus Open compels me to subtract 5 day rolling RTH range from the existing HOD

86.50 HOD - 12.90 (5 day rolling range) = 73.60

would need to see a hammer in the fiveminute
had loss..explain later..long agressive at 73.75
I'm using continuous day trading volume not just RTH volume....fyi.