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ES Short Term Trading 7-16-10


A Monkey’s Ramblings on a map to somewhere

*Red Lines are Price Action Support/Resistance lines
*Cyan Dashed Lines are Weekly Pivot lines
*Fib Retracement of 786 is shown with Green line(s)
*Yellow(ish) lines are a Pattern showing both a small ascending triangle BUT more importantly, some range contraction of sideways trading for a few days
*Volume bars are displayed as lighter Blue across the horizontal axis (overlapping some of the other components of the chart)

Click image for original size
es daily for 71610


So, that’s the layout.

Yeppers, it’s option expiry Friday, which always can toss a monkey wrench into “normal” expectations.

1080-1100 seems to be a current significant range boundary. What’s more important to my view is, after a decent magnitude run up during the past week and a half or so, the market’s challenged and still challenging the 1100 price with daily bars of market contraction. This 1100 zone/level coincides not only with a PASR level I’ve got, but also with a 786 Fib retracement for those that follow fibs, and this Weekly R1 @ 1097. Daily R1 is 1101 for Friday fwiw.

After reviewing a bunch of individual stock charts, most of them are over extended to the long side or have a messy bullish pattern setup at best. Three that I ran across that looked only semi-decent were: AZO, NFLX and BIDU. The Russell-2000 was weaker than the other major indices for what it’s worth. As for volume, the rally’s been anemic as every dog and his brother has been intimating on their website and blogs. Don’t forget that we’re entering the Summer slow down though.

ES price is trading between the 50 and 200 sma and slightly above a down trend line (none of which are on the chart … it’s got more than enough lines and pretty colors to confuse me). So those “indicators” are mixed and messy.

Anyway, look to Bruce and Kool and others for intraday MP mapping etc. And hope this is helpful to some extent. Depending upon the overnight trading and the open, I'm looking at a potential straddle or strangle on the SPY.
air above...6 bars down...PIKER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


had to pull 3 at 75.75....working 3.....


75 was key rat option folks had avoided..
if we get above yd's low maybe we can hit 1080
gone long, will add if correct, lod stop,off 1074.5
finally got volume in that 5m bar that printed 73.50

I saw Art Cashin this morning, he said 17 of last 28 July expiration Fridays closed down, then, the next trading day, 21 (or maybe 22) out of 28 ALSO closed lower.

Gap guy sez fill on Friday of OpEx week is a coin toss (only 52% of down gaps fill)
unless price can get above YDay's Lows, I'm going to call this a trend day down now.

NQ new lows
No long setups for me.
runners stopped long again from 70.75....67 - 68 is a key area!!!1
Originally posted by phileo

unless price can get above YDay's Lows, I'm going to call this a trend day down now.

NQ new lows
No long setups for me.


I shorted as soon as the econ numbers came out. shorted 1077.75.
stop 1075, target 1064
Interesting to note not one positive $tick read since RTH open.
Originally posted by phileo

unless price can get above YDay's Lows, I'm going to call this a trend day down now.

NQ new lows
No long setups for me.


reasons:
1) no gap fill. normally 4pt gap down should not be a problem.
2) preMkt bias was down, and opening 5min. was an opening drive down.
3) price is running away from a declining VWAP.
4) 2pt shallow retraces so far.
5) broken below expected support levels, YDay's low being the most significant one.
3 off at 72.75 and holding 5.....want 75 print !!
I'm using continuous day trading volume not just RTH volume....fyi.