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ES Short Term Trading 7-16-10


A Monkey’s Ramblings on a map to somewhere

*Red Lines are Price Action Support/Resistance lines
*Cyan Dashed Lines are Weekly Pivot lines
*Fib Retracement of 786 is shown with Green line(s)
*Yellow(ish) lines are a Pattern showing both a small ascending triangle BUT more importantly, some range contraction of sideways trading for a few days
*Volume bars are displayed as lighter Blue across the horizontal axis (overlapping some of the other components of the chart)

Click image for original size
es daily for 71610


So, that’s the layout.

Yeppers, it’s option expiry Friday, which always can toss a monkey wrench into “normal” expectations.

1080-1100 seems to be a current significant range boundary. What’s more important to my view is, after a decent magnitude run up during the past week and a half or so, the market’s challenged and still challenging the 1100 price with daily bars of market contraction. This 1100 zone/level coincides not only with a PASR level I’ve got, but also with a 786 Fib retracement for those that follow fibs, and this Weekly R1 @ 1097. Daily R1 is 1101 for Friday fwiw.

After reviewing a bunch of individual stock charts, most of them are over extended to the long side or have a messy bullish pattern setup at best. Three that I ran across that looked only semi-decent were: AZO, NFLX and BIDU. The Russell-2000 was weaker than the other major indices for what it’s worth. As for volume, the rally’s been anemic as every dog and his brother has been intimating on their website and blogs. Don’t forget that we’re entering the Summer slow down though.

ES price is trading between the 50 and 200 sma and slightly above a down trend line (none of which are on the chart … it’s got more than enough lines and pretty colors to confuse me). So those “indicators” are mixed and messy.

Anyway, look to Bruce and Kool and others for intraday MP mapping etc. And hope this is helpful to some extent. Depending upon the overnight trading and the open, I'm looking at a potential straddle or strangle on the SPY.
I took the loss at 78.75 on this campaign and wasn't quick enough to reverse short but this was the key for me : the $ticks rallied from low to high over 1000 points and the market barely budged 1.25 points...I expected that kind of move in the $ticks to move the market up for me and it didn't...so I bailed.....sure wish I was quicker as a reverse would have been nice..just not my style.
Originally posted by BruceM

added 79.50..air at 82.50
Great observation Bruce.

Cheers.

And volume is still building in that 1074 area.

Originally posted by BruceM

I took the loss at 78.75 on this campaign and wasn't quick enough to reverse short but this was the key for me : the $ticks rallied from low to high over 1000 points and the market barely budged 1.25 points...I expected that kind of move in the ticks to move the market up for me and it didn't...so I bailed.....sure wish I was quicker as a reverse would have been nice..just not my style.
Originally posted by BruceM

added 79.50..air at 82.50

yes that peak volume of 74..if we get below that and take out the 72 then I am reversing for the hour run..otherwise I'm still trying for some of that air above.....and the midpoint of the first hour range
short 73.75 now..
hopefully I'm not early ...could be more of a battle then I thought...at least the long runners are off....3 working short though..ideal point to hit is 68.50 for me..must be stops at 72.50...!
Originally posted by PAUL9

finally got volume in that 5m bar that printed 73.50

I saw Art Cashin this morning, he said 17 of last 28 July expiration Fridays closed down, then, the next trading day, 21 (or maybe 22) out of 28 ALSO closed lower.

Gap guy sez fill on Friday of OpEx week is a coin toss (only 52% of down gaps fill)


52.38%, but who's keeping track.


I also get their freebie newsletter, I find there quant stats to be informative.

Price is stuck between YDay's Lo and 1072.5. But neither GS nor BP can save it this time around.
we had a new low range 15 minute bar so taking the low short was a bit agressive but stop is near 75.75 now//
they need to take 72.25 and soon otherwise I can't hold this...it may bore me too death!!
took one off at 71.75....trade back to 74.75 will take 2 runners if we can't get that hour low
Bruce and other members

Thanks for all your postings.
My englisch is not so good but i learn a lot here?

Regards Trader43
I'm using continuous day trading volume not just RTH volume....fyi.