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ES Short Term Trading 7-16-10


A Monkey’s Ramblings on a map to somewhere

*Red Lines are Price Action Support/Resistance lines
*Cyan Dashed Lines are Weekly Pivot lines
*Fib Retracement of 786 is shown with Green line(s)
*Yellow(ish) lines are a Pattern showing both a small ascending triangle BUT more importantly, some range contraction of sideways trading for a few days
*Volume bars are displayed as lighter Blue across the horizontal axis (overlapping some of the other components of the chart)

Click image for original size
es daily for 71610


So, that’s the layout.

Yeppers, it’s option expiry Friday, which always can toss a monkey wrench into “normal” expectations.

1080-1100 seems to be a current significant range boundary. What’s more important to my view is, after a decent magnitude run up during the past week and a half or so, the market’s challenged and still challenging the 1100 price with daily bars of market contraction. This 1100 zone/level coincides not only with a PASR level I’ve got, but also with a 786 Fib retracement for those that follow fibs, and this Weekly R1 @ 1097. Daily R1 is 1101 for Friday fwiw.

After reviewing a bunch of individual stock charts, most of them are over extended to the long side or have a messy bullish pattern setup at best. Three that I ran across that looked only semi-decent were: AZO, NFLX and BIDU. The Russell-2000 was weaker than the other major indices for what it’s worth. As for volume, the rally’s been anemic as every dog and his brother has been intimating on their website and blogs. Don’t forget that we’re entering the Summer slow down though.

ES price is trading between the 50 and 200 sma and slightly above a down trend line (none of which are on the chart … it’s got more than enough lines and pretty colors to confuse me). So those “indicators” are mixed and messy.

Anyway, look to Bruce and Kool and others for intraday MP mapping etc. And hope this is helpful to some extent. Depending upon the overnight trading and the open, I'm looking at a potential straddle or strangle on the SPY.
hey paul..let me chime in here

http://www.mypivots.com/board/forum/26/1/kools-tools


he did some great vids and put a ton of effort into those.....you may need to sign up ...
Originally posted by BruceM

sorry Piker the 31 - 33 is important from that day....because of the singles but that 39 - 41 was a breakout on volume...that took out the 6-30-10 consolidation and that high on the 7-6-10 ..the breakout came on the 7th....

From an MP purist view it is usually the first set that froms that are most important..



Thanks Bruce,

I was just going over those long-term studies you and DT did a few years ago so I thought it might be relevant in this thread.
Just an FYI Piker..those are his studies and I have no financial interest in this site...posting here is cheaper than therapy and I get tired of talking to myself at home!!!
Originally posted by Piker

Originally posted by BruceM

sorry Piker the 31 - 33 is important from that day....because of the singles but that 39 - 41 was a breakout on volume...that took out the 6-30-10 consolidation and that high on the 7-6-10 ..the breakout came on the 7th....

From an MP purist view it is usually the first set that froms that are most important..



Thanks Bruce,

I was just going over those long-term studies you and DT did a few years ago so I thought it might be relevant in this thread.
$TICK peaked at +1290 on that run-up to 1064, so I faded it , short 1064 for a quickie +1pt.
Good trade...now how to hold on for more?

Originally posted by phileo

$TICK peaked at +1290 on that run-up to 1064, so I faded it , short 1064 for a quickie +1pt.
Originally posted by Lorn

Good trade...now how to hold on for more?

Originally posted by phileo

$TICK peaked at +1290 on that run-up to 1064, so I faded it , short 1064 for a quickie +1pt.



Yes, this is a chronic problem of mine.

The rationale to enter the trade was because of an unsustainable condition: +4pt run-up peaking with $TICK +1290.

My exit criteria was simply to bail when I saw that price action stalled out. There was no way to know whether additional buyers were going to step in to push price up, or whether sellers would take over again.

I am open to any suggestions for a better exit criteria.
Phileo Its in your best interest to trade like a chicken today:}
My initial comment would be to define what your willing to risk on this type of trade.

In my own trading far too often when I don't define the risk factor and point my fears get the better of me and I exit way to early.

I think giving something the brain can latch onto in terms of risk keeps all the unnecessary fear based decisions from overruling good trades.

Originally posted by phileo


Yes, this is a chronic problem of mine.

The rationale to enter the trade was because of an unsustainable condition: +4pt run-up peaking with $TICK +1290.

My exit criteria was simply to bail when I saw that price action stalled out. There was no way to know whether additional buyers were going to step in to push price up, or whether sellers would take over again.

I am open to any suggestions for a better exit criteria.
this was suppose to read 59 - 61 butthe point being that there may be something to the hour bars and the high volume nodes that go untouched...hopefully I'll have some time to investigate....where is BeyondMP ? He liked 30 minute untouched in O/N if I recall!!
Originally posted by BruceM

triple at 72.25.....trickier on trend days....I'd like to see that 67.75 print first....other volume line way down at 61 - 61...so risk is not well defined for longs
Bruce,

Can you explain what you mean by high volume nodes? Or is there somewhere on the site that goes over this? Or is this something you are in the early stages of developing?

Originally posted by BruceM

this was suppose to read 59 - 61 butthe point being that there may be something to the hour bars and the high volume nodes that go untouched...hopefully I'll have some time to investigate....where is BeyondMP ? He liked 30 minute untouched in O/N if I recall!!
Originally posted by BruceM

triple at 72.25.....trickier on trend days....I'd like to see that 67.75 print first....other volume line way down at 61 - 61...so risk is not well defined for longs

I'm using continuous day trading volume not just RTH volume....fyi.