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ES short term trading 7-21-10


Here are the zones I'm watching

1101 is low volume based on composite work


90.50 - 93 ***** HV area from the composite

85 - 86 - Fridays high and POC from Thursday

80 - 81 Tuesdays high and volume node

70 - 73 ************ key support, high volume , Va high ---Bold intentional

66 **** single prints

61.50*** High volume


56.50 ****high volume


My plan will be to sell rallies with high $ticks...especially if we gap up in RTH into one of our two key zones above today's highs....we know what usually happens after trend days
way too oftenn....u need to front run yourself...


for me that 75 was also a RAT but I don't mention those enough..for you it was projections...so good confluence so far....don't like double bots on 30 minute especially..but this summer volume is tricky
Originally posted by koolblue

SHEESE.. NO HURRY ,BRUCE, by the looks of it i'll be havy into Justin Bieber for punishment. I swear...how many times have you guys seen it? I make a brilliant call way ahead of time giving exact entries (at that time i had an order to buy one at 1074.25 and one at 1073.50) only to see it come so close and get one ticked..now you see why i like crude oil.. its actually easier to trade!!!
I still have 6 contracts due to those adds....double edge sword...gives you something to target but adds to losses when wrong.....


where is my 79 print.....I really need that ...then will try and hold two for those triples.....they owe me....

The worst part about triples is it can blind you..! but I still think they will be run today and don't get a trend day feel....
market seems to be alternating between high $ticks and low $ticks...in clusters.....if we were trending then they need to test a 30 minute high and I hope this is it...

moving target to 78.75 to be safe
Click image for original size
926
Lorn,

here's how I calc H vs O and L vs open (and BTW, I have noticed that on MATD days, if either one is hit in the morning, it is usually some sort of a bounce/retrace price point, it 'can' (does not have to, but CAN) represent a turning point for the day)

must use daily chart, RTH only H,L,O

formula: average(H-O,5) (the 5 day average of High minus open. you can do it this way, or you can take 5 consecutive days' values of H-O, add them all together and divide by 5.

average (O-L,5)

at the end of the day, I have the values for the next day.

for today, the values were

H vs O = 9.15

L vs open = -10.95

Once the market has opened RTH, take the Opening price, add the H vs O number to the Opening Price, and do the same for the Low versus the open

For today:

RTH Open = 1085.00

1085 + 9.15 = 1094.15

1085 - 10.95 = 1074.05

also, big super trend days usually see one of these levels violated before 11:00am.

example of potential for a BULL trend day, yesterday, H versus Open calculated to 1058.85. Price moved above that level before 11 am and only printed 2 ticks under it twice. and we all know what happened yesterday.

Example of Bear Trend day, 7-16-10 when 5 day average of L vs open calculated to 1080.15 and price undercut that level near 10:00am and never looked back.

This is KISS principle beyond belief.
See Bruces triples on the above chart around 10:30? at about 81.25? you'll see them soon enough!!!!...sigh
holding two for those triples these zone messed me up before due to greed...with runners it's ok to get greedy but not with core trade
gonna be a rough road for those...although it would be nice if they made it easy....not like before.....
it sure hasn't been a great "sell the high $ticks kinda day"...I was hoping they would have gone about 86 in the day session.....for additional sells......they cheated us this morning


76 is gonna stop out these last two now....

that was plus 1400 $ticks...so if buying gonna happen it should happen real soon...otherwsie the sellers got that best of us
Originally posted by koolblue

and if we stop at 74.25 and reverse the rest of the day... i'll go beseark!!! i'll listen to 12 hours of Justin Bieber!!!



1st +ve TICK extreme away from 1075 was short covering, the 2nd one peaked at +1368, indicative of a change in bias, and now we have another +ve TICK extreme.
Methinks 1074.25 was the LoD

http://tinysong.com/xwRE

sorry, couldn't resist!
Sounds interesting to me Phileo - looking forward to it.