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ES short term trading 7-22-10


Numbers for tomorrows day session:
1091
1086 - 1087
1079 - 1080..HV
1073 - 1075 ...singles will fill and closing Vwap
1066
1061
1053- 1056

1048


keep in mind we have singles from 70.25 - 74.25

Will refine them once we see what overnight brings
still looking for another try as long as 1089.25 doesn't get taken out. fighting the clock here.
Here is the good side of this campaign:

I was able to trade lighter up front as I expected the buying even if I wasn't long. Anyone on the forum who was long and held then please explain why. The last time I asked that I had some tell me they were long but couldn't give a real reason.....so lets strip away our egos here. I freely admit that my first contracts that were put on today were bad trades...no question about it, but until I can consistently spot breakouts on the first 5 minute bar ( seems impossible for me), the best I can do for now is trade lighter if I have a hint that we may trend.

So I am giving myself gold stars for trading lighter upfront and fading with less initially. The fact that we opened above the 73 - 75 ( see my mp thread) and then blew through that 79 area was a good indication....but I have seen moves like that come back and test those breakouts..so I need to learn from today and will....Probably won't stop me from fading a move like that but I will remember some of the signs.


Still a stressful morning...here is what I did and the numbers

sold two at 81.50 - Proud because it was smaller size but in hindsight it just sucked big time.

sold 3 at 84.25 - also sucked but I still had valid reasons..the air pockets are consistent trades ..so why we can see signs we can nevr be truely sure until we are wrong.

sold 6 at 88.25 - this was a plus 10 number and my Core trade..I had 86 - 87 as a key area....see page one...

sold 4 at 91.50 - 91 was a key number.....see page one

sold two on hour breakout....at 92.25....I had triples below and volume dried up......was watching $ticks and was planning on selling 90.50 on the way back down but chickened out...

Everything came off when Triples ran at 88.25...I was leaving to swim and I had that big volume spike from the report to deal with....


when the smoke cleared I made 3 points before commissions....not bad for a "losing " day.

I was taught to either trade out of a position or take the loss and keep trying.....Today I think it would have been better to take the losses and keep trying...I was stressed on the hour break even though Trips were below....If I hadn't chickened out on the 90.50 It would have been a great trade...

The real point is that adding into trades is very tricky and there are times that just knowing you have shorts from much lower prices messes with your judgement and it is hard to remain detattched and just take your signals .

Of course the market could have just kept trending and those days will come......You accept these days, learn what you can and MOVE O/N...Even though I turned off that little window where you can see your profit or loss on the day in my software , I still knew that I was getting buried.

So today we squirmed......Hopefully over time we learn how to avoid the things that cause us to make poor trades
Originally posted by BruceM

ideal target for me is still 86....core is on at 88 and 91 area....trips below 88.50 now..added at 90.75 ..for trips.....still have the 81.50 and 84's...luckily light on those but will affect Loss or Gain

This is me squirming and trying to trade out...good lesson for those who want to see me fail!!
Thanks for posting Bruce. I was curious how you added, generally speaking, and then how you would manage a trade like today when it kept going against you. Thanks again for all your info.
I like the fact that they are holding that 91 and consolidating there....but I don't like how they failed so far at that 93.75....I think if we go back up again they should try to push it with some volume on the way out......I'm not trading now so not implying I am.


This gets back to that whole 86 - 94 range with 91 as the POC...so if they can hold that poc now it should be good to go
Last hr and I'm seeing em flat here. Will read entire post later but admire the honesty and though I can't feel your pain, unfortunately I'm familiar with it.
Maybe prudent to wait for the other side of 95. A lot of shorts in there.
if we look at just the value area concept then we need to assume it is a good sign that they traded up into that composite Value area from below ( meaning they broke 86) and haven't come back out on the downside...interesting that there is an air pocket ( see histogram) at that exact price.....but we sure don't want to see it come out of that low now....


what makes trading complicated and hard to catch trends is that we can say we are consolidating under the Value area high and can't break thorugh that high too...so that's what makes a market...all these different opinions...so until that resolves we consolidate in value!!
Bruce,

I'm not sure what this response means, but I'm certainly not a vendor and if you check your email you will see that I've been viewing this forum for weeks trying to learn. My apologies if I offended you, but I certainly meant no harm. I'm honest that I'm just here trying to learn.


It disturbs me when folks on forums in general "boast" about their numbers being hit when you never even knew they were in on a trade/move or they don't post consistent and repeatable ideas.
Originally posted by mnytr35

Bruce,

I'm certain nobody wants to see you fail. You add alot of value to this forum. I've been quietly trying to learn for weeks. At some point I hope to be able to add value here.
thanks Chris...today was a bit different because I had a good feeling it might run from the open...so went lighter...I think the only way for me to catch part of that would have been from the O/N session if I was long but then again I wouldn't of had any size on to manage that and my fading mentality would have probably takenn over anyway
Originally posted by chrisp

Thanks for posting Bruce. I was curious how you added, generally speaking, and then how you would manage a trade like today when it kept going against you. Thanks again for all your info.
I hope it runs far for you david!!
That wasn't meant for u...so I am the one who needs to apologize.....I sometimes take opportunities to go on my soap box...that had nothing to do with you...so SORRY...i will get to the email tonight....didn't mean to mess ya up
Originally posted by mnytr35

Bruce,

I'm not sure what this response means, but I'm certainly not a vendor and if you check your email you will see that I've been viewing this forum for weeks trying to learn. My apologies if I offended you, but I certainly meant no harm. I'm honest that I'm just here trying to learn.


It disturbs me when folks on forums in general "boast" about their numbers being hit when you never even knew they were in on a trade/move or they don't post consistent and repeatable ideas.
Originally posted by mnytr35

Bruce,

I'm certain nobody wants to see you fail. You add a lot of value to this forum. I've been quietly trying to learn for weeks. At some point I hope to be able to add value here.
OK, you got the explosive rally off of the 12-13 day low. If you go back and look at my charts you will notice the high never comes in untill day 5 at the earliest, more commonly day 6-8. Friday would be day 3 ,the way i count it. however you have this little demon to deal with....Closing tick +1238! And you know how i feel about that! I would not be surprised to see some back and fill tomorrow.certainly by the close mon! ... good trading all!!!