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Emini S&P Trading Using Elliott Wave Principle


Hi all.

I am new to the forum and have started this thread to discuss trading the E-mini using the Elliott Wave Principle. I desire a high quality discussion.

I have attached the daily chart containing my operative count as a starting point of the discussion. I believe that the decline from 1216.5 was a Leading Diagonal rather than a 5 wave decline. We are currrently working minor wave 2 up in a zig-zag.

I'm looking forward to everyone's comments.
Click image for original size
ES1-057 Daliy Chart
For clarification to my previous post... Corrective structures stay within channel lines.

Best of Trading
Originally posted by EWT

A new month and I'm still undecided as to whether minor wave 2 on the daily chart has completed. Other market pundits feel that wave 2 ended in a truncated 5th wave of c at 1113. I'm making this post from my cell because I don't have internet access today to post a chart. My apologies! The truncation can best be seen on a 60 to 120 min chart. I'm note sold on that analysis. Price remains within channel lines established between 1006 and 1053 (bottom channel) and the parallel upper channel at 1096. Until the lower boundary is broken, I can't see getting overly committed to the downside here because that's a signature for corrective action. So rather than flip flop counts like most do, I'll ask the Dealer for another card in hope that the coming days price action will bring clarity the count. There's plenty of time to get on board the next wave down.

Best of Trading!


Yesterday I said that I wasn't sold on the fact that wave 2 had ended. It seemed to be a stretch given the overlap of waves down from the peak that followed. The "Dealer" has dealt his hand with an opening gap and subsequent rise above 1117.75 that removes any possibility that wave 2 had ended. While I have labeled the corrective structure unfolding as a Double Zig Zag, my confidence in the count is still questionable. Other possible counts exist with upside potential. Therefore, the trend is up and we should not fight it. So plan on further upside potential near term. Near term means today or days. As soon as a more definative wave count can be established, I will make a post.

Tomorrow is a travel day so I will not be able to make any posts until Wednesday.

Best of Trading
Click image for original size
es1
I opened this forum with two charts. At the time, both were considered low probability plays by others. I had other thoughts. Tomorrow may bring a break above 1127.5 that increases the odds of either senario playing out. Rather than to recreate a lenghtly post as to why I feel these charts were appropriate, you can read more about it in my July 25, 2010 blog post at: http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2010/07/elliott-wave-live-week-in-review-for.html

If you don't have time, then one word of caution. The current rally is getting tired as measured by many indicators. It is ripe for failure. Could the market extend further? Yes but 1127.5 is a previous 4th wave, so one needs to be looking for possible failures tomorrow. If the market penetrates 1127.5 cleanly and with upward thrust, then the next target is in the vicinity of 1136.

Best of Trading
Originally posted by EWT

I opened this forum with two charts. At the time, both were considered low probability plays by others. I had other thoughts. Tomorrow may bring a break above 1127.5 that increases the odds of either senario playing out. Rather than to recreate a lenghtly post as to why I feel these charts were appropriate, you can read more about it in my July 25, 2010 blog post at: http://elliottwavelive.blogspot.com/2010/07/elliott-wave-live-week-in-review-for.html

If you don't have time, then one word of caution. The current rally is getting tired as measured by many indicators. It is ripe for failure. Could the market extend further? Yes but 1127.5 is a previous 4th wave, so one needs to be looking for possible failures tomorrow. If the market penetrates 1127.5 cleanly and with upward thrust, then the next target is in the vicinity of 1136.

Best of Trading



The O/N session tested 1127.75 and failed. The June high was 1129.5 on the continuous contract. Jobless claims jumped by 2,000 and the market sold off. I'm looking for confirmation that a top is in place... meaning 5 waves down, followed by a 3 wave counter trend rally. Traders may want to consider short positions should this occur.


Best of Trading
Watching possible triangle B wave forming. Target to 1125 area.
Triangle didn't complete. Wave B was a flat. Min. target of wave c=.618 wave a has been struck. Still looking higher unless we break 1119.25.
Mike/EWT: I can take a guess at why other traders are voting you down and why your rep went up to 80 and is now down to 40:

You are making comments such as: "Traders may want to consider short positions should this occur."

Although we have many newbie traders on this forum most of our members are established veterans and view this type of comment as "newbie bait."

If you take a look at some of the other topics you will see traders make statements such as "I have just sold at 1234 and am targeting 1224. The reason that I sold was because there was an R1 there and it coincided with the 5 period WMA which is my primary strategy etc."

These traders aren't trying to sell anything or establish themselves as gurus. They are exposing their reasons, tactics and strategies because other traders will be able to point out mistakes or ways to improve their entries and exits which ultimately leads to everyone being more profitable; good traders improve while new traders learning. Simple questions asked by new traders often expose flaws that we haven't thought of.

When you start demonstrating what you are trading and calling your entries in a timely manner you will start gaining the respect of other traders on this forum and this will be reflected in an increase in your reputation.

Remember that you get +10 points for an up vote and -5 for a down vote. This means that if you reputation went from 0 to 80 (which it did) then you received 8 up-votes. It has now done down to 40 which means you received 8 down-votes (8 * 5). Down votes cost the voter 1 reputation point so they are not cast lightly and you are given the benefit of the doubt by being given more value for + votes and - votes.

This post is designed to help you help yourself on this forum if you want to stick around. We would love to see you stay but we don't want to be distracted by non-value comments of the wouda, shouda, couda kind. Tell us (1) what you're doing (2) at the time you do it and (3) why you did it.
Originally posted by day trading

Mike/EWT: I can take a guess at why other traders are voting you down and why your rep went up to 80 and is now down to 40:

You are making comments such as: "Traders may want to consider short positions should this occur."

Although we have many newbie traders on this forum most of our members are established veterans and view this type of comment as "newbie bait."

If you take a look at some of the other topics you will see traders make statements such as "I have just sold at 1234 and am targeting 1224. The reason that I sold was because there was an R1 there and it coincided with the 5 period WMA which is my primary strategy etc."

These traders aren't trying to sell anything or establish themselves as gurus. They are exposing their reasons, tactics and strategies because other traders will be able to point out mistakes or ways to improve their entries and exits which ultimately leads to everyone being more profitable; good traders improve while new traders learning. Simple questions asked by new traders often expose flaws that we haven't thought of.

When you start demonstrating what you are trading and calling your entries in a timely manner you will start gaining the respect of other traders on this forum and this will be reflected in an increase in your reputation.

Remember that you get +10 points for an up vote and -5 for a down vote. This means that if you reputation went from 0 to 80 (which it did) then you received 8 up-votes. It has now done down to 40 which means you received 8 down-votes (8 * 5). Down votes cost the voter 1 reputation point so they are not cast lightly and you are given the benefit of the doubt by being given more value for + votes and - votes.

This post is designed to help you help yourself on this forum if you want to stick around. We would love to see you stay but we don't want to be distracted by non-value comments of the wouda, shouda, couda kind. Tell us (1) what you're doing (2) at the time you do it and (3) why you did it.


Thanks for the comments. Frankly, I didn't know how the voting system worked and why they were voting me down or up. I started visiting other topics that interest me last night. That should help explain the culture of the forums as you have noted.

I do have a question. I would prefer not to post trades under this thread because I feel that the purpose of EW, as I see it, is to determine a directional bias. Traders need to make their own decisions but I don't mind posting my trades. I do respect the fact that in a forum, nobody cares about retoric but my comments to date were to avoid being borderline "giving advice".

Would I be offending forum members if I posted my count(chart only -no comments) for each day and then create a seperate forum category under trade set-ups for my trades? Seems like nobody is interested in discussing the count. Or do you feel that there would be more value if I posted just the trades under the current topic?

Thanks for the advice.
The general feeling that I have from this forum and others is that EWT does not work or it's not possible to apply it and use it in a trading strategy.

So the challenge that you have on your hands is to demonstrate that you can make money with it. If that's not the case then it doesn't matter what you say about it. Nobody's interested in understanding how to do wave counting if that can't be translated into actionable trades that over a given time period prove to be profitable.
Hi to both of you, DT and EWT,

Having subscribed to some EW analysis before I would like to offer an opinion. (Yeah, I know anatomy.) I'm not a great elliotician, but work with it.

In previous encounters with these services, the best to me, did not debate the waves. The provider simply posted labeled charts displaying their preferred count, with the logic behind it also posted. Also the minimum target levels if correct with the wave rules and guidelines behind it. Some provided a mention of their alternate counts, but only briefly as their expertise was such. Also included were the parameters for disqualification of the existing count or wave.

A proficient analysis follows the rules to a T. I've never personally seen one violated on a chart. Also the guidelines, which are not carved in stone, assist in the analysis. Pointing out the difference helps the reader to more completely benefit from the analysis.
Correct identification of the waves is the goal as it, and it alone, provides for the predictable forecasts. That's the goal.

I would recommend posting a daily submicro chart using the hourly as described above with pertinent info such as rules and guidelines involved. Where you post it is not important. I would leave off any trading reference. Facts and analysis only.

Most services would post a daily/weekly chart every 2-4 weeks for the larger picture with equally based logic using EW to explain the analysis.

I don't know or care if you trade EWT. I have often wondered in the past why people that posses such knowledge don't just make themselves rich. The guy that ran my favorite analysis site quit after he did just that. It's the same with those that run sites or write books.

If you want to contribute intraday, there are the other forums. I think you'll find it a slippery slope compared to analyzing an hourly chart. I completely understand what you posted today here. I wasn't looking here for it though during the day. I don't know if others would benefit. I think it can take one quite a while to latch onto the inherent value involved in the theory. I think I have described what a non EW user would eventually pick up on. I'd recommend that unless you just want to trade. You could post it in the daily forum in the AM. Any value will eventually come out there for others. I'm sure you'll be critiqued no matter what. :)

I hope this helps to maintain an interest here somewhere. Thanks for reading it.
Well, I guess we have our answer...as expected EWT is giving us double talk and "dancing" around making those market calls...we know what that means.....he can't make money by trading EWT.

I have a good indication now that he has little respect for our forum and the people here. He doesn't need us and we certainly don't need him. I think it's time to let Elite trader and other forums figure him out.