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ES Short Term Trading 7-28-2010


Range Based S/R for July 28, 2010

R1 = 1122
S1 = 1102.75
R2 = 1125.125
S2 = 1099.625
Originally posted by hari

Today's OR:

  • OR 5min 15min 30min 60min High 1109.75 1111.50 1111.50 1111.50 Low 1107.75 1107.75 1106.50 1104.50 Range 2pts 3.75pts 5pts 7pts



I'm sort of on vacation this week but I had some computer related jazz to deal with before heading out for the day and I wanted to note something I think is worth paying attention to:

O/N midpoint is 1111.38, look at the highs hari has for 15, 30 and 60 minute. High for the first 90 minutes occurred in the first 10min and it was more or less AT the O/N midpoint.

do you know what 50% of yesterday's RTH range was? 1111.88

markets always look for confirmation of where the buyers and the sellers are, price moves to levels that test/confirm whether the buyers or the the sellers still have strength,

right now, you have consider that on an immediate and intraday basis 1111.xx is a line in the sand for upside.

look at PA right now, swing low near 11:25 was 1104.00, prior swing low today was 1103.50. this is something I watch, although I have not come up with rules written in stone. Here is premise I am running with until I collect enough data.

Merril, in his book "Behavior of Prices on Wall Street" (written decades ago) quantified double style bottoms, a "W" in which the second down leg UNDERCUT the previous swing Low was the strongest for upside movement.

Even intraday, when I see a retest of previous swing Low that does not match or undercut (especially bullish to me if undercut is just 1 tick), but if no match or undercut, I call it a one tick "fake-out," as opposed to a one tick "take-out."
When I come back to computers I will curious to see how far current rise gets and whether price comes back to test 1103.50 LOD

there are many factors that move price, I have become curious about this one on an intraday basis.
low volume is usually good for mean reversion startegies...I've been trying to buy under the 05.75 ( composute VA low ) and the hour low today with minimal results.... we are accepting value at lower prices so we need to be careful on new lows if they come
ledge at 07.50 !!!
I am done trading for today, shorted from 1111.0 to 1104.0,(based on breaking below yesterday's close) but I would be careful going long. Based on the bearish pennant formed on the hour chart.

Good luck to all!
low volume consolidation will get ledges a very high % of the time...so I trade assuming it will run out the highs of that
Originally posted by BruceM

ledge at 07.50 !!!
Bruce, is there somewhere on the site I can find definition of ledge? or very brief description.. thanks in advance.
Originally posted by chrisp

Originally posted by BruceM

ledge at 07.50 !!!
Bruce, is there somewhere on the site I can find definition of ledge? or very brief description.. thanks in advance.
found it through the search,,,
Cheers
been trying to hold runners on each campaign for 1109 ...so that is my runner target...maybe this time
1008.5 the 50% level for rth.
Almost 1 pm EST I guess lunchtime is over here.
Funny chart.
Originally posted by BruceM

low volume consolidation will get ledges a very high % of the time...so I trade assuming it will run out the highs of that


Good call!
Originally posted by day trading

Originally posted by hari

Some of you may have been trading for more than a decade, what is the smallest daily range you remember seeing in ES (RTH)?
The range today ( so far ) is only 8 points.


If I remember correctly it was something like 3.25 points and it was the day before Thanksgiving Day.



Thanks DT.