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ES short term trading 8-10-10


Today we have FOMC Announcement as well as:

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

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NFIB Optimism Index up to July 2010.
Here is 30-min chart.


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30fibprjec8102010
Here is the 5 min chart.


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fibprjec8102010
I will not be surprised to see them reprint 19.25...other key volume from today is 14 and 11.25//..they will bring it back to it..the 19.25
Aren't the historical probabilities of gap fill on FED day's particularly high?
23 - 24 is a key number as per POc's too..so we are looking for the 19.25 again...why not ??
gap at 18.50
Originally posted by Lorn

Aren't the historical probabilities of gap fill on FED day's particularly high?


according to gap guy,
since 1998 there have been 30 down gaps on FOMC announcement day.

all 30 filled same day.

this was in his free video, but I have been busy on other projects and didn't even look at the video until I read your comment, sorry.
hmmm...those are pretty strong stats.

Originally posted by PAUL9

Originally posted by Lorn

Aren't the historical probabilities of gap fill on FED day's particularly high?


according to gap guy,
since 1998 there have been 30 down gaps on FOMC announcement day.

all 30 filled same day.

this was in his free video, but I have been busy on other projects and didn't even look at the video until I read your comment, sorry.
I should also note that even though close from Monday was 25.75 and that is (I'm pretty sure) the price the gapguy uses, many swinging big money will look to the 4:00 close from Monday, and that was 24.50 (filled).
Good point and we have certainly had a reaction from 24.50.

Originally posted by PAUL9

I should also note that even though close from Monday was 25.75 and that is (I'm pretty sure) the price the gapguy uses, many swinging big money will look to the 4:00 close from Monday, and that was 24.50 (filled).
let me revise that POC final to 18.75...I think my tic data is squirrley today...new words by me..