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ES Short Term Trading 8-12-2010


Range Based S/R

R1 = 1128.50
S1 = 1075.50
R2 = 1137.25
S2 = 1066.75

Steenbarger Pivot = 1093.50

ON has already traded to R1 and bounced off it. 1075 is also a fib projection down from longer term 30 min chart.
I miss koolblue, what is he doing now?
I have key number zones at

88- 90.50 and 95 - 97 form WEdnesdays trade

above that is 1103.25 and 1108

on the downside for RTH we have

76 - 78

71.50

64 - 65.50

I think most who are expecting the big follow though down in RTH tomorrow will be on the wrong side. Lets see what O/N gives us in the morning.
Hopefully he is trading without distractions now....Perhaps he can come back on a limited basis....Hey Kool man...where ru ?
Originally posted by MrTee

I miss koolblue, what is he doing now?
so this is what I look for to confirm the numbers with the O/N trade

O/N high is 87.50 so that confirms the 88-90 area.
O/N volume spike and LV area is 77.75 so that confirms the 76-78 zone
On Low ( currently is 72.75 ) confirms our 71 area

Ideal today will be the open and drop with low $ticks to buy into..hopefully some air above to target...otherwise I will short lighter at the 77 area or higher with high $ticks but that is not my preferred trade.It could be a buy the break , sell the rally consolidation day. Be nimble and let runners work for ya if lucky.


Who has the statistics on how often they Gap and go ( drop) without returning to the previous close or VWAP?


Originally posted by BruceM

I have key number zones at

88- 90.50 and 95 - 97 form Wednesdays trade

above that is 1103.25 and 1108

on the downside for RTH we have

76 - 78

71.50

64 - 65.50

I think most who are expecting the big follow though down in RTH tomorrow will be on the wrong side. Lets see what O/N gives us in the morning.
the more I look at this, the more I like the idea of taking trades long to get back to 1077.75....that was breakdown from 8:30 report and a key area...so short fades up there are greater risk
the O/N has sold off a bit more so we are now slightly below the 71 number......this is a low volume area and often they don't stay around them long.....

Key support starts down below 65 now!....we may not get it that low for our buys..

Revision to first upside target area is the 75 - 77 area..
Using Kools numbers on a 1 day chart gives 63 area for 261.8 support. I have never used the 1 day so we will see.
ES gap created 7/22/10 is still open from overnight (current) lows all the way down to 1064.00 which was the 4:15pm close of 7/21/10

4:00pm ES close from 7-21-10 was 1065.75

SPY open gap is 108.33 to 107.07 close
SPX open gap is 1072.14 to 1069.59


BTW, have had 2 consecutive unfilled gaps, gapguy did historical, 5 times ES has gapped down a 3rd day (meaning today gap down), according to his study, all 5 filled at some point during the trade day.
Here is a look at PRC and 30 min projection down.


Click image for original size
30fibprjec8122010
BTW,
I have posted before that I calc 5 day average of RTH L versus Open and H versus Open,
in a flat trade day it gives you a an idea of where, the "average" movement to the H or the L of the day has been.

I did the same calc for the MONTHLY

5 month average of the Monthly Low versus the Monthly Open calcs to 1068.75, an ES print there would be the "average" price movement for the prior 5 months away form the Open. (the bigger the time frame, the larger the wiggle room).
For me they become points of awareness Paul and targets with a good signal....now on a TRUE trend day you will see many of these volume spikes and the market never comes back for them. so the context of the day is important...

The $tick extremes is obviously a good signal in context...I don't want to imply they are the be all and end all to trading but the concept of a large SPECIFIC block and price of volume hitting the market is good to be aware of...what happens is that the market often revisits these areas to see if there is interest again.....

I fired up my I/RT and the specific prices on the two big volume thrusts today are 77.50 and 81.50....so they will mess with those and soon....the day also ended with the peak volume price at 81.50
Originally posted by PAUL9

Bruce,
I looked at my own 1 minute chart and see volume spikes for 76 and 79.50.

Just to see if I am getting this,

today, price moved up and came back to it short-term (almost immediately), and now longer-term in the afternoon here.

but what sort of a time parameter would you put on expectations for a revisit, like yesterday's 96.50? I know you observed late yesterday that you were no longer willing to fade lows, but how do you decide?

today, for the 79.50, price did come back and print there near 10:30am but how do you decide to short in anticipation of that? from the volume spike until the 10:30am revisit, price managed a High print of 81.75, would you just be adding to the position, or perhaps waiting for a $tick extreme?