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ES Short Term Trading 8-16-2010


Range Based S/R

R1 = 1093.125
S1 = 1068.375
R2 = 1097.25
S2 = 1064.25

Steenbarger Pivot = 1078.375

Middle week of August. Will it be more weak volume summer trading? A change of pace? Have to fire up the charts and watch the action unfold to find out!
30 min PRC view. That thick green line is 1075 fib projection off the peak from 8/5. Prices are obviously aware of this level. Will they continue to use it as support or break through and use it as resistance?


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30fibprjec8152010
Lots of numbers matching up for monday....The 33rd anniversary of the kings death....

Most important will be 1079- 80**** top dog

87.50 - 90

95.50

1065.75

1060.50

let see what price gets some volume in On session

Rock on!
So Bruce how do you deal with trips and ledges that form in O/N?

Do you pay attention to them if they don't get taken out before RTH?
We can see VWAP is resistance coming into the open and we are beneath the 75 number.


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footprint 8162010
Oh boy, 1075 number now providing resistance. Problem for me is the 10:00 housing news.


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30fibprjec8162010
30 min PRC oversold area has held and prices now back ontop of 1075. The next 30 min close will be telling I think for the remainder of the day.
Lorn, tell me something more about next 30min. what is it you're looking to see? new High, test of new High. I am not familiar with the way you and Bruce look at the 30minute and the 60minute "runs."

Market today

yesterday cash had NR39 and IDNR4,
these 2 together suggest price is coiling for a move, but I have noticed that the 1st day (especially after an IDNR4) can see tepid trade with only minor range expansion, unable to truly breakout in either direction.

4:00 close has now been filled for ES, it was 77.75.

but then, especially after IDNR4, have to see whether ES can break decisively above 618 extension of 15min OR. that is 78.50 (high print RTH has been 78.75).

if it can't find stops to run and then retreats and puts in a swing failure (tries to lift, but turns down), then downside, test of Low could be in play.

right now, short-term still positive, but O/N High and there is a volume POC 81.50.
For me personally 30 min closing prices are critical for the larger bias of the day. The 10:30 close is also the first hour close so its even more important in that regard.

If prices close above VWAP and have heavy volume to support the move then I have a bullish bias for the rest of the day or until VWAP is broken again (of course volume size is important).



Originally posted by PAUL9

Lorn, tell me something more about next 30min. what is it you're looking to see? new High, test of new High. I am not familiar with the way you and Bruce look at the 30minute and the 60minute "runs."

Market today

yesterday cash had NR39 and IDNR4,
these 2 together suggest price is coiling for a move, but I have noticed that the 1st day (especially after an IDNR4) can see tepid trade with only minor range expansion, unable to truly breakout in either direction.

4:00 close has now been filled for ES, it was 77.75.

but then, especially after IDNR4, have to see whether ES can break decisively above 618 extension of 15min OR. that is 78.50 (high print RTH has been 78.75).

if it can't find stops to run and then retreats and puts in a swing failure (tries to lift, but turns down), then downside, test of Low could be in play.

right now, short-term still positive, but O/N High and there is a volume POC 81.50.
Here you can see prices have strongly closed above VWAP. We have big volume in the 1073 area which is now support and all this happened after an attempted break to the downside.


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footprint 8162010a
on the 79 shorts..hour breakoutinto key zone...one of my favorite trades...
A look at RTH on the footprint chart. One attempt close to 3:00 to move below VWAP but was able to regain its footing.




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footprint 8162010b