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ES Short Term Trading 9-1-10


Have a daily and 30min chart with price action S/R levels on both ... Red = potentially significant ... Magenta = potentially semi-significant. The Cyan dashed lines are Wkly Pvt Levels. This is just a map.

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es daily for 9110


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es 30min sr for 9110


Hope this is helpful ... am not liking TOS after a few months of digging around in it ... but this is where the charts are pulled from for now.

The Intermittent Funky Monkey
You can see prices have found the old 1075 number as support so far. As you say Bruce, that 1082 number still is sitting out there all alone.


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30fibprjec9012010a
watching this 77.50...would like to see the 74.50 area again and have YM and NQ even weaker this time.....then I'll be thinking short...otherwise just twidling thumbs
Originally posted by Big Mike

Originally posted by BruceM

biggest surprise for me so far is the lack of any real test of the 70 - 71 area....usually when we rocket through a POC of Volume there is at least a Retest attempt...like the try earlier to re-tag the 60.50 number...

Lots of reports tomorrow and hurricanes coming....I couldn't buy up here...the fader in me is too strong!! I'd rather miss the move when so far extended....so I'm still hunting shorts..


Same here! Holding short from 1077.75 looking for test of 1072 (prior highs from 8/29)


Next test of 1080.50 (highs of 8/23; leading to big selloff) is UNCLE point!
Nice!
Originally posted by PAUL9

1074 was August Pivot Point (calculated using July's prices)

I mentioned this before, but I'll mention it again.
I did studies of Monday price ranges with fib extensions.
Once price hits a .618 extension of Monday's range, odds are heavily weighed that price will hit a full 1* Monday's range (Monday's RTH range added to Monday's RTH H or subtracted from Monday's RTH Low)

I call .618 extension (H-L) * .618) + Monday H, but if you use a fibbo charting tool it will be labeled 1.618 or 161.8% extension because the "1" represents the range itself. the 1* range extension would be labeled 2.000 or 200% on a fib tool.

anyway... one full extension of Monday's range above Monday's H = 1082.50, and as I say (barring a catastrophic headline) odds are high that this will be printed either later this afternoon or tomorrow.

stall in price likely now intraday as price has just hit daily 20period sma (1078.56).

that's it for me today... good luck trading.
I gave it all to you. hundreds of hours of me looking at charts...
this is the last time I will ever mention this idiosyncrasy of Monday Fib extensions.

You can lead a horse to water... but making him do the Irish jig is a completely different situation LOL

Originally posted by PAUL9

1074 was August Pivot Point (calculated using July's prices)

I mentioned this before, but I'll mention it again.
I did studies of Monday price ranges with fib extensions.
Once price hits a .618 extension of Monday's range, odds are heavily weighed that price will hit a full 1* Monday's range (Monday's RTH range added to Monday's RTH H or subtracted from Monday's RTH Low)

I call .618 extension (H-L) * .618) + Monday H, but if you use a fibbo charting tool it will be labeled 1.618 or 161.8% extension because the "1" represents the range itself. the 1* range extension would be labeled 2.000 or 200% on a fib tool.

anyway... one full extension of Monday's range above Monday's H = 1082.50, and as I say (barring a catastrophic headline) odds are high that this will be printed either later this afternoon or tomorrow.

stall in price likely now intraday as price has just hit daily 20period sma (1078.56).

that's it for me today... good luck trading.
I understand.
Got it. Thanks!
That rocked......great stuff....I need Johnnie walker now...It's freakin 98 degrees here.....now I have a new Monday night routine and that is to calculate your ratio..thanks again
Originally posted by PAUL9

I gave it all to you. hundreds of hours of me looking at charts...
this is the last time I will ever mention this idiosyncrasy of Monday Fib extensions.

You can lead a horse to water... but making him do the Irish jig is a completely different situation LOL

Originally posted by PAUL9

1074 was August Pivot Point (calculated using July's prices)

I mentioned this before, but I'll mention it again.
I did studies of Monday price ranges with fib extensions.
Once price hits a .618 extension of Monday's range, odds are heavily weighed that price will hit a full 1* Monday's range (Monday's RTH range added to Monday's RTH H or subtracted from Monday's RTH Low)

I call .618 extension (H-L) * .618) + Monday H, but if you use a fibbo charting tool it will be labeled 1.618 or 161.8% extension because the "1" represents the range itself. the 1* range extension would be labeled 2.000 or 200% on a fib tool.

anyway... one full extension of Monday's range above Monday's H = 1082.50, and as I say (barring a catastrophic headline) odds are high that this will be printed either later this afternoon or tomorrow.

stall in price likely now intraday as price has just hit daily 20period sma (1078.56).

that's it for me today... good luck trading.

Am I understanding this correctly? Take Mon H and L. Any .61 move off the bottom or top of the days range will produce a 1.61 move either higher or lower than the days range.
Here's how I see it Rburns..lets suppose the range was 0 - 100...so the .618 (rounded to 62) would be 62 points...so we add that to the high so if 162 prints then there is a good chance according to this theory that twice the range will print that week......so 200 should also print...

I'm sure that's what u r saying....
rburns:

The following is my interpretation of Paul9's findings...

On 30-Aug-2010 (Monday):
Hi = 1063.50
Lo = 1044.50
So, range = 1063.50 - 1044.50 = 19.00

So, 0.618 extension from Monday's Hi = 0.618*19.00 + 1063.50 = 1075.00 (rounded down from 1075.242)

Paul9 says that if price hits 1075.00 (as it happened today, i.e., 01-Sep-2010), then there is a high probability that the price will hit 1.000*19.00 + 1063.50 = 1082.50. Today, it did hit 1082.50.

Hope this helps.


Originally posted by rburns

Am I understanding this correctly? Take Mon H and L. Any .61 move off the bottom or top of the days range will produce a 1.61 move either higher or lower than the days range.