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Weekend preview 1-1-11


Not surprisingly, since my work is mostly based on my own interpretation on price action, not much has changed from my last weekend preview which can be accessed on page 2 of the trading strategies page. The market remains longer term overbought and somewhat vulnerable to decent 80 handle plus correction at any time. Picking a top ,however, could be an expensive game.Resistances remain around 1258.00,1283 zone, 1302 area and 1312 or so....Here are a few interesting charts to help guide us ,near term...
First a look at why most are expecting a very good year for 2011 (the 3rd year of the presidential cycle)...

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four year election cycle seasonality ndr sep 2010
(courtesy Ned Davis)
And a little closer look , broken down into monthly divisions (courtesy Mike Burk)...
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3rd year pres cycle sentiment
And yet another perspective... note that all seem to show positive seasonality from Feb-Mar to June or July ...
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pappas1217101
Here's a study of near term seasonality around the New Years holiday..
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new years subsamples
..And another similar perpective...
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market sci seasonality
(courtesy market sci)
Lets not forget Mr. Bradley...
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bradley2011
Heres a sample of where my numbers come from...
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daily proj
...and this...
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daily near term
Summary: use your own interpetation... but for my money , ive been calling for a major top sometime this year, (probably in the first half of the year)... see the 'secular bear' thread under Kane Trading here at mypivots! On a shorter term basis, we are due a decent correction which could begin right here (surprising most,including me!) or more likely closer to 1300 and just above! Scalpers like me could care less about any of this of course, taking long and short opp. each day as they present themselves... one thing seems a no brainer.. volitility will begin to come back soon ,mercifully expanding the 8 handle daily ranges of the last 2 weeks. Cant wait! Heres hoping for a profitable and fun year!
Oh yeah, almost forgot!.. this is a work in progress so its only half done ,but i'll post the completed one in a day or two!...
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01january2011calendar
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seasonality2