ES short term trading 1-26-11

First, a quick, but important note. Ive been encouraged with all the views on this thread lately, but remember the reason i started it... so we can all learn from each other! Please dont be afraid to post trades, as long as the REASONING is also presented. Look, honestly, whether you make a good or bad call, or trade, really doesnt matter. We are more interested in the reasons and methods! Thats how we learn from each other!... now i'll stick my neck out first! ... So far the 'alternate' scenerio i presented on the weekend preview appears to be in force. (marginal new highs coming, then a big down turn!). Whether it turns out to be accurate is too soon to tell. I expect today to be somewhat boring sideways mish-mash (and difficult to trade beyond small scalps) untill the fed announcement at 2:15. As you may know, i base my 'alternate ' scenerio view mostly on seasonals (which turn positive for the rest of the week now, and historical considerations, for example, from Frank Hogelucht:the market "was trading at a higher level the session immediately following the State of the Union Addresses on 17 out of 20 occurrences (thereof the last 13). Chances for an +/- 1.0% change two sessions later (in this event on Wednesday, January 26) are 9 : 1 (9 occurrences with a 1.0%+ up-move, but only 1 occurrence with a -1.0%+ loss), and downside potential was regularly limited (except in 1931) over the course of the then following four sessions (the remainder of this week)." Note, my .line in the sand around 1265 or so ,to confirm a downtrend was never violated, so price action, for me is still bullish. However, i cant emphasise enough, that i expect a decent down turn very soon, for all the resons on the weekend preview!

ON Profile.

short at 91

i am also short at 90.75 with 2pt stop. traget 87.50 -88

not a great environment to attract volume this morning....we have a report at 10 but will trade around that if needed today...actually hoping for some higher trade to add to this short

Otherwise without the volume we will drift back to YD range

first target is only trying for just under that Overnight swing low near 89.25...

i think i'll take the money and run here filled at 88.50. i know i may be cutting my profits a bit short but again, it's those demons talking

well ,here i go again!.. as you may suspect ,i was trying to take the long side at 1288 with my order at 1288.25. It was hit but no fill!

shorts are still ok by me because although we didn't get a 30 minute close below YD high or the O/N low we also didn't close outside the Overnight high yet either


The 10:30 close will have more meaning to me

Hey, Optimus! Wheres that median line on your pitchfork currently? Around 1287? I see Lorn has a vol spike there too!

eventually they decide that they have had enough of jerking it back and forth through the pre fed price...today it's 94.25.....and just keep moving it without returning...I don't want to get caught on the wrong side of that final move away from there

If I had to pick a direction it would be down but that is really only due to some minor weakness in NQ...not tradeable for me

they still can't get that close above 60 minute high....interesting so far