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ES short term trading 1-26-11


First, a quick, but important note. Ive been encouraged with all the views on this thread lately, but remember the reason i started it... so we can all learn from each other! Please dont be afraid to post trades, as long as the REASONING is also presented. Look, honestly, whether you make a good or bad call, or trade, really doesnt matter. We are more interested in the reasons and methods! Thats how we learn from each other!... now i'll stick my neck out first! ... So far the 'alternate' scenerio i presented on the weekend preview appears to be in force. (marginal new highs coming, then a big down turn!). Whether it turns out to be accurate is too soon to tell. I expect today to be somewhat boring sideways mish-mash (and difficult to trade beyond small scalps) untill the fed announcement at 2:15. As you may know, i base my 'alternate ' scenerio view mostly on seasonals (which turn positive for the rest of the week now, and historical considerations, for example, from Frank Hogelucht:the market "was trading at a higher level the session immediately following the State of the Union Addresses on 17 out of 20 occurrences (thereof the last 13). Chances for an +/- 1.0% change two sessions later (in this event on Wednesday, January 26) are 9 : 1 (9 occurrences with a 1.0%+ up-move, but only 1 occurrence with a -1.0%+ loss), and downside potential was regularly limited (except in 1931) over the course of the then following four sessions (the remainder of this week)." Note, my .line in the sand around 1265 or so ,to confirm a downtrend was never violated, so price action, for me is still bullish. However, i cant emphasise enough, that i expect a decent down turn very soon, for all the resons on the weekend preview!
selling 93.50 now....will add near O/N high...target is open print ...will watch that 10:30 close
Click image for original size
1105
took the loss at 94.25 because it came down and tested my 92.25 number and rallied back up....

Looking to sell again up in 95 - 96 now and hopefully have an air pocket below
Just got filled here... short from 1285.25
on 95.50 and will probably be early...we know where that weekly high is....30 minute closes slightly above O/N high but now they would need to overtake that weekly high on a close basis....

air pocket at 93.75 is a caution area
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Posted - 01/26/2011 : 10:08:52 Hey, Optimus! Wheres that median line on your pitchfork currently? Around 1287? I see Lorn has a vol spike there too!

My chicken out line (pale thin yellow line between the purple lines) is at 87.00 but the main bottom is at 80.
Originally posted by BruceM

on 95.50 and will probably be early...we know where that weekly high is....30 minute closes slightly above O/N high but now they would need to overtake that weekly high on a close basis....

air pocket at 93.75 is a caution area
yeah, im probably wrong but i would really be surprised if we went to new highs (above 1296.25) before the fed announcement! but i guess any thing is possible. but the proj was right here and the trendline also!..
took one off at 1293.50, gain of 1.75 (now up 2.75 on the day).. holding the other stop at 1295.75
A direct hit on the 2.618 (1295.50) will almost always decline to the 1.618(1292.50-75) at a minimum.. however im looking for around 1291.75 (initial thrust from 1295.50 to 1293.25=2.25x 1.618=3.64 and subtracted from the start of the move(1295.50-3.64=1291.86) so i'll exit my runner around 1292 or 1292.50(i hope!!!)
wow! unexpectedly stopped on my runner. This thing is even more bullish than i had anticipated! Remember, 1302.50 is the longstanding daily projection from the start of the rally months ago! and 1312 still looms also! im still inclined to sell short term ,but not sure where..there is some resistance at 1297
eventually they decide that they have had enough of jerking it back and forth through the pre fed price...today it's 94.25.....and just keep moving it without returning...I don't want to get caught on the wrong side of that final move away from there

If I had to pick a direction it would be down but that is really only due to some minor weakness in NQ...not tradeable for me

they still can't get that close above 60 minute high....interesting so far