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ES short term trading 1-26-11


First, a quick, but important note. Ive been encouraged with all the views on this thread lately, but remember the reason i started it... so we can all learn from each other! Please dont be afraid to post trades, as long as the REASONING is also presented. Look, honestly, whether you make a good or bad call, or trade, really doesnt matter. We are more interested in the reasons and methods! Thats how we learn from each other!... now i'll stick my neck out first! ... So far the 'alternate' scenerio i presented on the weekend preview appears to be in force. (marginal new highs coming, then a big down turn!). Whether it turns out to be accurate is too soon to tell. I expect today to be somewhat boring sideways mish-mash (and difficult to trade beyond small scalps) untill the fed announcement at 2:15. As you may know, i base my 'alternate ' scenerio view mostly on seasonals (which turn positive for the rest of the week now, and historical considerations, for example, from Frank Hogelucht:the market "was trading at a higher level the session immediately following the State of the Union Addresses on 17 out of 20 occurrences (thereof the last 13). Chances for an +/- 1.0% change two sessions later (in this event on Wednesday, January 26) are 9 : 1 (9 occurrences with a 1.0%+ up-move, but only 1 occurrence with a -1.0%+ loss), and downside potential was regularly limited (except in 1931) over the course of the then following four sessions (the remainder of this week)." Note, my .line in the sand around 1265 or so ,to confirm a downtrend was never violated, so price action, for me is still bullish. However, i cant emphasise enough, that i expect a decent down turn very soon, for all the resons on the weekend preview!
so far every air pocket is filling in and holding...a key point at how short term trends find support....runners not going anywhere...


one more try for me at 95.75....a close at 11 am above 96.25 will be interesting as it will have then closed above 60 minute high, weekly high of last week and O/N high...volume has tappered off on this last push up
well i tend to agree, Bruce ! the one min chart does show a clear 7 waves up (usually the end of a given move) but im still not certain where to enter! I think that vol may be the key!
wow!...nice call bro!
covering all but three at 93.25.......I don't want to see another push and close outside the O/N high from here
man, they're really playing hard ball today! 5 min chart proj 1282.00 at least!
great work guy's.

I think that today is the start of the down trend. For that the ES will need to stay below 1296.25 and will be a nice down trend for at list few days. I'm short at 1294.75 with stp at 1296.50. Looking for a retest of YD high and possibly PvP.

Will see if it give it to us. (I may pull out before the F's announcement)

ES trading 1293.00 11:01
Originally posted by BruceM

selling 93.50 now....will add near O/N high...target is open print ...will watch that 10:30 close
Originally posted by WS

great work guy's.

I think that today is the start of the down trend. For that the ES will need to stay below 1296.25 and will be a nice down trend for at list few days. I'm short at 1294.75 with stp at 1296.50. Looking for a retest of YD high and possibly PvP.

Will see if it give it to us. (I may pull out before the F's announcement)

ES trading 1293.00 11:01
Originally posted by BruceM

selling 93.50 now....will add near O/N high...target is open print ...will watch that 10:30 close

could be right ,WS, but im of the opinion that seasonals and historical considerations argue for continued strength all week now
for anyone who likes the 30 minute close idea this is probably a most important post...

By understanding what a trend trader would look for us faders can understand what we DON'T want to see on our trades.

I don't have time for a chart now but a trend trader would like the closes to keep getting higher. In relation to today they would be looking at the close outside of Yesterdays RTH first, then the close outside the Overnight, and then the close outside the 60 minute high and last weeks RTH high. What we want to see and come to expect as faders are reversals from those closes. And the "filling" in of the air pockets and single prints on the 30 minute and 5 minute time frames.

As I type we have closed back below the O/N high and the 60 minute high so that in theory is good for us shorts. Obviously we could get another reversal up on a close basis too.

So it is not perfect.

Let he whose method is without losses cast the first stone...

Don't worry, no preaching today...I'll spare you all that babble!
Did you take the trade because it was below the overnight high or was there another reason...? I guess my real question is that I'm wondering what your particular fade is based on in case I missed an area ...

Lets hope it keeps going for us all...I'm not sure they are gonna make this quick and easy for us but hope they do...single prints come into play down into the 91.50 area so 91.50 - 92.25 is a key area for me to see the next close point
Originally posted by WS

great work guy's.

I think that today is the start of the down trend. For that the ES will need to stay below 1296.25 and will be a nice down trend for at list few days. I'm short at 1294.75 with stp at 1296.50. Looking for a retest of YD high and possibly PvP.

Will see if it give it to us. (I may pull out before the F's announcement)

ES trading 1293.00 11:01
Originally posted by BruceM

selling 93.50 now....will add near O/N high...target is open print ...will watch that 10:30 close

Originally posted by BruceM

for anyone who likes the 30 minute close idea this is probably a most important post...

By understanding what a trend trader would look for us faders can understand what we DON'T want to see on our trades.

I don't have time for a chart now but a trend trader would like the closes to keep getting higher. In relation to today they would be looking at the close outside of Yesterdays RTH first, then the close outside the Overnight, and then the close outside the 60 minute high and last weeks RTH high. What we want to see and come to expect as faders are reversals from those closes. And the "filling" in of the air pockets and single prints on the 30 minute and 5 minute time frames.

As I type we have closed back below the O/N high and the 60 minute high so that in theory is good for us shorts. Obviously we could get another reversal up on a close basis too.

So it is not perfect.

Let he whose method is without losses cast the first stone...

Don't worry, no preaching today...I'll spare you all that babble!
What can i say, pal? That was one of the more awesome entries ive seen, and what newbies should pay attention to is, even tho your first attempt was stopped for a small loss, you held fast to your methodology! That kind of discipline is admirable!.. YOU DA MAN ,friend!
eventually they decide that they have had enough of jerking it back and forth through the pre fed price...today it's 94.25.....and just keep moving it without returning...I don't want to get caught on the wrong side of that final move away from there

If I had to pick a direction it would be down but that is really only due to some minor weakness in NQ...not tradeable for me

they still can't get that close above 60 minute high....interesting so far