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ES Short Term Trading 01-31-2011


Here is last weeks profile to get is ready for the new week.


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30minmp01312011
Key zones for me today will be:

78- 80.50 - this is a key area where we consolidated on Friday and we have the weekly and daily pivots at 80.50...

Prefered sells are at this zone and higher.

Next zone up top is 84 - 85 as this is a volume cluster from friday and 50% of Fridays Outside down bar...

All my early selling will be using a 30 minute close above 85 as a failure price.


Friday also created the "b" pattern from market profile world so if we open above there then they will probably try to test back down into the belly of the "b' pattern.

Down volume trounced up volume by 10 to 1 on Friday so we need to monitor for the exhaustion move..meaning that sellers are gone and buyers will prevail. I feel the 6- 8 point gap up as I type and the fact that we hit S1 down at 1261 - 1262 in the overnight and rallied from there is showing that the buying may already have taken place. Once again that 84 - 85 will need to prove me wrong on that idea.

9:45 PMI report to contend with also....

Down below we have 70.25 - 72.50 as a critical zone as we had support there on Friday and it is a weekly low..


so we have three main zones to work with this morning...I prefer the short fades until 85 tells me otherwise
here is what the 'b' pattern looks like. It is nothing more than a decline in prices followed by a consolidation. If we open in RTH above the consolidation then quite often the market trades back down to test the consolidation. If we open inside the consolidation then we need to treat it like any other range and ask : Will they try to break it out of that range with volume or will the breakout fail and we will we return back into the range?
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bee
lovely analysis. thanks
O/N profile.


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onprofile01312011
I assume your next target, after a b/o above 85, would be the 91 region?


Originally posted by BruceM

Key zones for me today will be:

78- 80.50 - this is a key area where we consolidated on Friday and we have the weekly and daily pivots at 80.50...

Prefered sells are at this zone and higher.

Next zone up top is 84 - 85 as this is a volume cluster from friday and 50% of Fridays Outside down bar...

All my early selling will be using a 30 minute close above 85 as a failure price.


Friday also created the "b" pattern from market profile world so if we open above there then they will probably try to test back down into the belly of the "b' pattern.

Down volume trounced up volume by 10 to 1 on Friday so we need to monitor for the exhaustion move..meaning that sellers are gone and buyers will prevail. I feel the 6- 8 point gap up as I type and the fact that we hit S1 down at 1261 - 1262 in the overnight and rallied from there is showing that the buying may already have taken place. Once again that 84 - 85 will need to prove me wrong on that idea.

9:45 PMI report to contend with also....

Down below we have 70.25 - 72.50 as a critical zone as we had support there on Friday and it is a weekly low..


so we have three main zones to work with this morning...I prefer the short fades until 85 tells me otherwise
I don't buy breakouts but if I was then yes, I would be looking up there...working shorts...1/2 gap fill would need to be first target...report soon
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1129
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1130
I'd like to see them push the weekly pivot near 80.50 before looking for shorts again...Now we have two things to watch for ...the breakout from the 'b' belly and the hour high
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1131
Hi Bruce, Thanks again for your input. This may be a little wordy, but this should give an indication of the 'fade the first move by a Fibonacci of the Stretch calculation and applying that price rotation to the formula (3, -1). The -1 is the counter trend 'fade' price move. I am looking forward to your shared mutual interests.

YMH1: Sold short in 1st minute: 11753. Reversed at 11698 and offset the long at 11638 (1.618% bounce off the low).(Rational: Settlement: 11775- 2.618% of today's Stretch (26 x 2.618=68. 11775-68= 11707. Friday's last trade was 11762 -68=11694. Friday's settlement: 11775-68=11707 or 11751-68=11683. Average of the three projected a low=11694. Tonight's low is 11690. Prices bounced back to unchanged and filled the gap. January 31

YMH1: Applying the (3, -1) formula to the strategy that trades from unchanged and fades the first move by today's Stretch calculation, 21. Previous settlement lifted up to the high, i.e, 11930+21=11951 and reversed back to unchanged. Prices fell below unchanged by 63 pts, i.e., 11930- (3x21)= 11967. 11964 = low.
Another nearly perfect fit. 25 January 12:44PST


YMH1 strategy; price rotations basis 1.618% and 2.618% of today's Stretch calculation, 24=X. 1.618X=38 and 2.618X=38: Trading from unchanged, 11822 lifted 50% of 24 and failed 11838 to 11806 reversing to 11870 (1st high ... 11806+64=11870= +2.618X +2pts). 11870 fell to 11808=62pts=2.618X. Unchanged + 4.25% of X=11924=11822+102=11924. High:11936. 24 January 12:34PST


Basis YMH1: Trading from unchanged and fading the first move by today's Stretch (26=X) calculation and applied to the (3, -1) formula, satisfied this formula and range projection within a small margin of error, 3 pts above the low and 5 pts below the high. 11774-X=11748 11745=low). 11774+ (3x26)=11852. High-low=112 pts, i.e., 11857-11745=112. 110=4.25% of today's Stretch, 26, calculation.
21 January 16:12PST


I'm sick in the head (lol) and going back to bed.
Take a look at the March $5 Dow intra-day chart. The trading strategy is to fade the first move, e.g., when it is counter-trend. The first move was down almost 1.618% of today's Stretch calculation (25), and then reversed, from unchanged, three of today's Stretch calculations. This fit...s the (3, -1) formula.
18 January 14:13PST

YMH1, Trading from unchanged; fading first move as applied to (3, -1) formula,; Stetch calculation =24=X, 1.618X=38, 2.618X=62 and 4.25X=102: Unchanged, 11683+Stretch, 24=11683+24=11707. At 11708 reversed in the early A session. 11708- (24x3)=11636=11707-72=11636. 11627, 14 Jan low reversed up to 11740. The low 11627 + 4.25X= 11729, i.e., 11627 + 102 = 11729. Prices have started a retraceal lower from the 11740 high. 14 January 12:07