MP consolidation of Trends before continuation?

How do you get a 35% chance of Outside Day on Thursday? With such a tight range today (Wednesday) I would say that the chance of an Outside Day would be higher than 35%?

Not sure if you look at things like this but I like to look at this chart which shows the ranges in the ES as a histogram:

answer to the 35% chance. is observation over the years. You can almost smell them. And although we did not get an outside day we got a nice reject of higher value with the late breakdown. We have to search out lower if only to find out where the buyer is. Or has the buyer bt everything he can handle in which case we won t be looking for the normal response on lower value we will be looking for the abnormal response.