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ES Short Term Trading 02-18-2011


Weekly RTH profile leading into Friday. I'll note the gap from Wednesday was never filled.


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30minmp02172011
According to Stock Trader's Almanac, day before Presidents Day weekend, SPX down 16 of last 19 and February Expiration Day, Dow down 7 of last 11. And remember the seasonality chart...
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febseasonalityday2day2
And fwiw, from palisades...Daily forecast for the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes:
Forecast Made: Forecast For: Direction
February 17, 2011 February 18, 2011 flat to lower

(Remember to reload your screen if old date appears.)

Probability for next day:
Up Probability Average amount (up) Down Probability Average amount (down)
S&P 27% .37% 73% -.36%
NDX 36% .33% 64% -.35%
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1210
Sure wish i would have waited for 1339! or even 1341.50,anyway 1339.75 is where my stop is...ugh!
I should point out, as it stands right now, the above chart showing the down projections is still active untill 1340.00 is touched or exceeded... which seems likely of course.
projections still alive, but im not..stopped 1339.75...loss of 2.25 on 2 es, down 4.5 on the day ugh!
buying 1338.25
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1212
AHHH..perfect!..long a couple at 1338.25..will take one off at 1340.00 and hold the runner
one off at 1340..plus 1.75 there (now only down 2.75 on the day).. Holding the runner, still studying the charts to see where to exit the other...
Originally posted by koolblue

ALRIGHT ,BE THAT WAY ...Out the runner at 1337.75.. i'll go long 2 again at 1336 and change!
God , did i second guess myself or what!! Getting too late for me, hope everyone has an enjoyable weekend and holiday!