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ES short term trading 2/22/11


From the weekend preview:

Besides the fact that sentiment is flat to negative this week, sentimentrader reports that the day after Presidents day (Tues) has been positive only 36% of the time. They also note that the only 3 times the s&p cash had a close higher than the open (11 days in a row) ..."That's an incredible streak that has been seen only 3 other times in the contract's nearly 30-year history.



The others were 1/8/92, 8/30/93 and 9/14/95. Interestingly, each time the futures topped out during the next few days, and lost around 3% maximum during the next three weeks."... So again this week , there are good sentiment and historical reasons to be cautious here.Add to that the fact that the last couple days of the month have been bearish ,at least for the last 7 months or so, and Stock traders almanac reports the Dow has been down the last 9 OF THE LAST 12 times the week after Feb expiration. Of course ,so far, this market has defied most historical considerations. Remember Feb was usually a lousy month! I do note however, that recently the small cap leaders, are beginning to lag! (sp up 1% last week, nas up .9%) . I place a lot of importance on this! So, in summary, a little pullback can come at anytime now ,but a decent one is probably , a ways off yet!
well that last dive spooked me and i just covered at 1316.25.. plus 1.75 sigh... watching!
well too late in the day for me!.. one min proj is 1311.00, hourly is 1310.75.. Good luck all! c ya!