No registration required! (Why?)

CL April crude oil


Click image for original size
seasonalitycrude
Bingo!!! Long from 100.34
I won't be surprised to see us reach the full projection on that one - 9916 - eventually KB
Yeah,Prest, just hoping for a bounce to around 100.50 first!...
also, 10029 was the 50% down extension of the pit IB
Originally posted by koolblue

Yeah,Prest, just hoping for a bounce to around 100.50 first!...
Bingo!..out at 100.49... how the hell due you trade this crazy thing! volitility is extreme!
Originally posted by koolblue

Originally posted by koolblue

Yeah,Prest, just hoping for a bounce to around 100.50 first!...
Bingo!..out at 100.49... how the hell due you trade this crazy thing! volitility is extreme!



Great trade KB!

It is a rush to trade but I find if I really follow the discipline of the projections and don't get greedy it works out well. The volatility can really give you a bad day if you lose control but it also can help you out because of extreme retraces.

I have scalped 37 CL trades today so far with 6 modest losers and one break even but without Kools Tools I wouldn't even try. It sure beats waiting for the ES to move.
true dat,pal! Ive looked at the 5,10, and 15 min charts and believe that 99.16 level is coming ... but i bet we get another good bounce up first,tho.. observe the 15 min and how oversold we're getting!..Also note the prc bands line up well with the lower projection.
Click image for original size
1270
selling 100.67-70
based on 10015-10049 retrace I am looking for 10070 initial and 10104 full but that 1 minute BB and 50 SMA at the 10060 area may cap it
Originally posted by prestwickdrive

based on 10015-10049 retrace I am looking for 10070 initial and 10104 full but that 1 minute BB and 50 SMA at the 10060 area may cap it
.. the way the one min prc bands are beginning to flatten out, id be careful here on the short side. Tho we seem to agree about lower to 99.17 or so, i think a decent rebound comes soon! 101.40ish?
On the "Here goes" thread it was mentioned how dangerous the CL is to trade and I couldn't agree more. With more risk comes potential for greater rewards but one has to stay alive by prudently and aggressively managing risk in order to live long enough to capture the reward.

Everything with the CL moves faster and farther than an instrument like the ES. The following is an example of what I mean from last week with the CLJ contract which was the front month then. This first chart shows a typical ascending wedge.

Click image for original size
ascending wedge clj1 3 17


Because the underlying trend of the market was up one could reasonably expect an up breakout. On top of that they "usual" ascending wedge continuation pattern is up and the following is what happened in the next eleven minutes after the above picture was taken:

Click image for original size
wedge breakout clj1 3 17


The extent of the berakout was way more than one would usually expect from an instrument like the ES or NQ as it moved 80 cents in 11 minutes. That is $800 per contract or the equivalent of 16 ES points. What compounded the situation was the breakout point was the round number of $101. When stop losses at $101 got hit for those who were short it got really nasty. Even shorts with stops at $101 likely got hurt more than they expected because the market is so thin and their stop market orders likely got very poor fills. Those with stop limit orders just above $101 likely did not get fills at all.

The point of this is to point out the volatility of the crude oil contract and the need to be well capitilized to trade it and to really protect one's capital.