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ES 3-17-11


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seasonalmarchspx

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seasonalmarchndx

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mean reversion model5735image002

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mean reversion model5735image004

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day chart
Here is a look at CD and VWAP. If you look at the low of CD it is a little tail sticking out on a big green candle and the corresponding price bar is the first green candle after the 61.50 low. That is what I call a hidden divergence.


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esvwap03172011i
well its gettin late in the day for me!.. currently trapped in a short from 1265.50... looking for 63ish.. the 66.75 is of course Lorns vwap and also its the median line and red avg on the 13 min, so hope is still alive ,but the stop im using is nearby at 1267.50 so im probably dead meat... we'll see... btw nas is still lagging the s&p cash which is negative for tomorrow!
out and done for the day(a winning one!).. good luck all!
Let me ramble if ya don't mind.....my plan once I finally get good data for bid/ask/ delta is to set up a matrix ( yes ..yet another one) for the volume spikes and where they form......In my mind I think there will be a very limited number of things that will happen right after a volume spike......I know this because I mostly just trade at or near volume areas...just like the air pockets etc...


Like everyone else here I'm always looking for ways to refine and reduce drawdowns etc....The last time I tried MD I was so disappointed as I found no measurable edge....then I found out that the IB data just sucks for that kind of analysis.

Anyway , I'm excited about the prospects......now if only I could get my lazy self in gear to get everything set up....sometimes even the prospect of making more money doesn't even motivate me to take action on simple things. It something about setting up new programs and filling out forms ....


And while I'm at it...a happy St Pats day to those who celebrate it...I'm only about 1/4 Irish but this year I'm even more thankful than ever as I know there are loads of people suffering and without food....they've lost loved ones etc.....and are just plain worried sick..

Sometimes for me it's a never ending battle of guilt...I can donate my time and money but there is always more I can do...and don't always do it......When I really want to torment myself I play that scene from Schindlers List over in my head...near the end..where Shindler is telling them to take his car to save more people,,,..very disturbing.....

So recent events have caused me to be a bit more reflective. I guess I'm just trying to remind everyone and myself to count our blessings.. we shouldn't need a special day, holiday or tragedy to do so.
and that 74 projection was awesome too Kool...
Originally posted by koolblue

Originally posted by koolblue

Oddly enough, i have the biggest ego of all on this thread! lol... but i actually get turned on by havuing a winning day period! the amount doesnt seem to matter whther 12 bucks or 500!! lol go figure!

I think my attitude is based on the fact that i dont trade for a living, as i have a full time job! It would likely be different if i didnt.. i will tout my calls at times but generally to show the validity of the work, and how if done correctly, surprises are at a minimum! A good example is today! i 'showed off the fact that i was looking for that 41 area, not the 43.50 low we got yesterday!.. So it struck me that newer players might have wondered, does that negate the opinion i posted after the close yesterday detailing why i thought a strong rebound was coming today? The answer of course is no!.. Thats why i mentioned it. it was no surprise and in fact was a better spot at which to launch the expected rally from.. at least thats my thinking
I think that's the right path to success as a trader. I learned very early in my career to trade in order to trade well, not to trade to make money. Back then a little trick that I still use today was to hide the P&L column so you only see the ticks/points gained for the day. This has worked really well for growing my position size as well and keeping the emotions under check, since I'm really trading the same whether it's 2 cars or 200 now.



Originally posted by Lorn

Yes Bruce, I do. And in all honesty I believe its an utter detriment to my trading. My ego gets tied up in it and sooner or later (sooner usually!) I make some horrible trades based on nothing.

Originally posted by BruceM



Here is an honest question for forum members...

Do you ever get more excited about being right then the actually money you've made for the day? I do.....not sure if it's "ok" to admit that....but gotta keep it real..

Spot on DRob. I did the same thing myself early on.

Originally posted by DRob

I think that's the right path to success as a trader. I learned very early in my career to trade in order to trade well, not to trade to make money. Back then a little trick that I still use today was to hide the P&L column so you only see the ticks/points gained for the day. This has worked really well for growing my position size as well and keeping the emotions under check, since I'm really trading the same whether it's 2 cars or 200 now.



Originally posted by Lorn

Yes Bruce, I do. And in all honesty I believe its an utter detriment to my trading. My ego gets tied up in it and sooner or later (sooner usually!) I make some horrible trades based on nothing.

Originally posted by BruceM



Here is an honest question for forum members...

Do you ever get more excited about being right then the actually money you've made for the day? I do.....not sure if it's "ok" to admit that....but gotta keep it real..


a good day to study context...trade inside the previous days range and trade on both sides of the open ..multiple times...

and that 68 - 70...still like a giant magnet...look how they tried to push it up and away from there again and the volume just died on the third one minute bar....up

I'm referring to the break away they just tried at 3:45 EST...