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ES on 3-18-11

Sometimes you get lucky. Got home from work and re-shorted the 1269 for an O/N trade, and placed order to cover @1262, which was the low during RTH. Just got back from family dinner, and lo and behold, my short was covered at 1262. Then ES shoots up to 1279+. New short placed at 1279.50. Whoever was watching that double bottom at 1262 early tonight and went long - congrats! Setting up for nice trade tomorrow.
a quick FYI about the volume will be a mistake if you are expecting price to stop EXACTLY at the number.....what I do is I will put the .50 after a number ( like the 75.50) which tells me that I have bigger zone of volume that I have not been able to pinpoint a perfect number to....

This usually happens when we get a volume spike and then that volume spike gets tested many times during the trading day....You then see VPOC form here over time....because price passes through it or tests it many times....

anyway the .50 after a number tells me that we have a slight distribution of volume so I become a bit more concerned when we get within one point on either side of the number....I become more aware of the area around it...

The point is that the volume numbers can't be expected to be exact in general so I prefer to set up a zone many times where I am expecting to see something happen

EDIT: I put the .50 after the number to help me to remember that the zone may be a bit, can I type a lot of fluff just to make a simple point wonder my hand isn't healing well...Gheesh!!!
yes I do Kool..and that happend at 11:15 too....thanks for pointing that out..
Originally posted by koolblue

the actual one min proj (2.618) is more likely 1280.25-50 but im leaving my order in and hoping if that happens my stop protects me(the 128.25 is the 1.618 and you can see the difficulty they'r having with it)
Freakin s.o.b.'s hit me but wouldnt fill me!... i cant win today!
Welcome to the ES!

Originally posted by koolblue

Freakin s.o.b.'s hit me but wouldnt fill me!... i cant win today!
PT if you get time could you post why you took those two trades...I'm not sure if you can capture Delta/ Bid ask stuff this late after the trade but I'd be curious....especially since I seem to be the worst after hours trader out here...

EDIT : my bad...u only took the one trade but perhaps u could explain why a long would have been good down there
Originally posted by pt_emini

Originally posted by MonkeyMeat

If you provided some rationale for the trades, the method/strategy of how and why you chose to enter and exit when and where you did, that would at least be educational and perhaps useful to others here. It's also nice to have a chart(s) to post displaying your analysis for the trade(s) as well. Just an idea Stevo. In the mean time, glad you had a profitable trade.


Good advice MM

Good trade Stevo, take the comments as helpful suggestions. I did see that low form yesterday evening, and I also had a short off the close which I also covered in that same price zone. I came back and looked at the market an hour later and was very surprised to see it was 10 points higher ! Wish I had gone long there, at the time I had no idea what was happening or going to happen so was just a case of looking back wishfully.
here comes 1280.25-50...short from 1279.00
1280 is the days midpoint now too....a perfect 10 point range the tick....that won't last.....just too perfect....I hope they re-bust the lows for you Kool!
my objective here is the smallest bare bones initial move i can find on the one min chart...1280.25 to 1278.75 which has its 2.618 at 1276.25, so i.ll exit at 1277.00... not much but what the heck! a win is a win!
Click image for original size

Great stuff here. Keep up the good work.

My bias today was long. I made two trades. Apparently there is a "ban" on non real-time trades, so I will simply ask for comments on the next few day's direction, starting on Monday 21 Mar.

My thoughts were we were going to at least hit 1292 today before heading back down. Generally speaking I only trade 1 - 2 times a day and place a single order that upon execution, triggers an OCO. After my first successful trade for the day, I entered my second trade at roughly 0905 hrs EST with a buy at 1283.50. My profit target was 1288.00. Obviously that did not hit as the high on the 0925 hrs bar is 1287.25.

The above is one of the disadvantages of not watching the ES tick by tick (I gave that up after several years of futures trading). My current method is more like fishing and no trades or a trade every other day is fine by me. I adopted this method from my success with swing trading stocks and I'm surprised at how well it works.

So, my post is a small introduction as well as a desire to solicit members thoughts on direction for the next week. I'll throw my hat in and say we'll visit 1300 before re-visiting the lows established this week.