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ES short term trading 4-1-11


Good morning! Set for a wild open, eh! I thought i'd briefly touch on the thought process i have going into a typical trading session. First, as you may know i have a longer term bullish bias, thinking that 1241 was a supreme buying opportunity to an expected move up to 1426 at a minimum, probably by June. I am much more cautious shorter term however,feeling that a short term top may be overdue. So that the set up! Now for today! Yesterday i pointed out 2 days with a very tiny daily range in the es, would likely yield a big range (strong move) day very soon. The fact that today is unemployment day made that a no-brainer. lol. Anyway, being jobs day, remember ive shown in the past that , historically, its best to 'fade' the opening move! That means if we open down, you would want to buy! Conversely ,if we have a strong move up opening, that would be bearish!... i know thats hard to believe ,but thats just history! It certainly appears so far that the bearish scenerio,may be taking hold... in other words i'll likely be looking for shorts! And heres what im looking at as we come to the opening of the rth session...
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1560
I sold 30.50....small.....thisis O/N session and they may try to run it with the breakaway from the consolidation

36.50

31.50

27.75 ***** Overnight High volume area

and 24.50******
Im with you ,Bruce!.. short from 1330.75,will be taking one off at 1329.25(one min 1.618 proj down is currently 1329.00) and hold the runner for a test of yesterdays high around 1327.75
Just want to say thank you to BruceM for his invaluable lesson on his trading style yesterday. Read through them all this morning and can tell that even after trading for a couple of years now, there is much to learn yet.


Only been a member for a couple of day but am feeling like I might have found "home" after having visited and been a member to alot of false "homes".

Hope that one day I will be able to contribute, but for now it appears that what I have learned and know about trading is already being incorporated here, and then some!

Good and profitable trading today everyone.
O/N Profile.


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onprofile04012011
Welcome, Traveling! I second your opinion on yesterdays thread!
here is just another way to look at the inefficient 'HOLES' in the market......look at the low spots on the histogram at the right......little time spent at those prices.....



If we return to efficiency those will get filled in....TESTED....trends will take our money and leave holes as it travels higher
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timeholes
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1561
BINGO O/N THE 1328.50!!!...A LONGER TERM LOOK...
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1562
trying for 28 even...that is just above first "hole"
OUT ONE AT 1329.25,plus 1.5 ther and closing the runner here 1328.50(gotta run momma to work!)
i'm at the office so i can't post a chart but if you look at early to mid Feb the market did the same thing when they hit the 1330 levels. There seems to be a brick wall at the 1333-1335 levels. Maybe someone could look into this and confirm?
My guess is there is balance between sellers and buyers at these levels and with no significant news or reports we will stay stagnate until that changes with earnings reports or other news.
with recent flar ups of trouble in jordan and the middle east,our own senate not able to agree on a budget, i would suspect the market is approaching higher levels a little cautiously to see what happnes over the weekend.