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Somethings bothering me...


Most technicians are expecting continued strong action up next week and lets face it... the dramatic move off of the recent 1290.25 low in the June ES has been impressive. Over 40 handles in 3 days! Wow!And within spitting distance of yearly highs which most believe will be captured Monday. But as i look at the charts, somehow it just doesn't look right.I would like to throw out a theory i've had for a few days now and suddenly at least 2 widely followed blogs seem to be adopting it giving me confidence to speculate on it here....First, a long term look at the weekly picture...
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Notice the rsi on the weekly chart above from about April'09 to May'10. See how it spends most of its time overbought ,with only brief forays below the 50 line? Thats classic 3rd wave behavior! Now lets zero in on the more recent daily chart....
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Ok, fine, ive laid out the most logical scenerio (a very bullish large wave 3,which should end soon ). I also laid out the arguement some time ago that the wave 4(of wave 3) which started had to alternate with the obvious flat for wave 2 meaning it should take the form of a zig zag,...or...
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... If, and i know its a big if, wave 4 of three is ending soon, but has not ended yet,then early next week should see declining prices before launching to new highs for the year to complete wave 5 of three. Afterward, an even larger wave 4 should manifest itself this summer.... Thoughts and criticims are welcome! Either way, were sure to now Mon-Tues!
oh yeah!One more piece of evidence hopefully supporting my view... seasonals , generally very strong in April, are historically weak for the early part of next week before turning up again by around Wed. (for example, the first day after Easter , the s&p has been down 17 of the last 27 years,etc)
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(At least both charts agree that Monday looks weak!)...
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