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YMM1, (3, -1), profitable Strategy, 2.618% profitable


Hi,
Basis YMM1 (June e-mni $5 Dow futures):
Trading from unchanged, 12631, and fading the first move, i.e., -1 of (3, -1):
12631 - the Stretch calculation = 12631 - 27 = 12604 (12601 = low at 21:52PDT).
12631 - 27 = 12604, representing the fade, i.e., -1 of (3, -1)
12604 + 27 + 27 + 27 = 12685 (high = 12692 (12694 = high at 07:01PDT)
This completes the 3 of the (3, -1) formula.

Below you'll find a corrolating 2.618% entry level.

Measuring from the 9 May high, 12677 - 2.618 of the 10 May Stretch = 12677 - 70 = 12607. 12601 = low (21:52PDT)
hey silverharp,from what i have seen in this thread ( http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/6654/1/ymm1-3-1-profitable-strategy-stretch ) you do have static stretch calculations (off settlement) throughout the day, but you also dinamically use stretch numbers off highs/lows along with fib projections...is this right ? also, what kind of stop losses do you use when entering a trade say in es or ym ? thanks !

Originally posted by Silverharp

Ayn, I've tended not to look for the fade in particular, I treat it like a fib tool but off settlement.
Ayn, good question , its down to my style for now, my trading is normally FX looking for specific setups, so I may have around a dozen charts to rieview during the day, the static ratios suit that better, so I havnt spent much time reviewing dynamic ratios. Its something I'll get around to but I'd need to look at less charts, the second argument I guess is if starting to use it, it might be good not to see to many targets.
As for stop loss, if just using the ratios usually around 5/6 points the other side of the number.
silverharp, if you do any es or ym trades (or any trades for that matter), do you mind posting the chart on this thread at the end of the day so i (and may be others) can review the logic ? thanks
here is a trade I have on now long DOW based on low at 12517(261 of stretch), will see how it developes. looks like a little scare em out movr just there hopefully thats it on the downside.


Click image for original size
ws1
that's great silverharp...unfortunately i saw that when i woke up (too late today)...did you put your stop below the -3x of the stretch ?
got stopped out at 161, very sneaky , reloaded again, yeah below the 300 makes sense, as they are very close together otherwise I just stick with the number
you mena you had mved your stopped up to the -1.168 level and it got hit ? if so still a good trade down from where the -2.618 was...

was wondering about taking the long when we got back down into the -2.618 / -3.0 area, but i noticed yesterday that when we did this it went all the way down hard....different day of course and hard to expect it to trend like yesterday but from what i have seen these past few days first tests are optimal
Hi,
Basis YMM1 at 12 May 07:06PDT, long YMM1 12512. Last night's early A session attempts to break above 12609 (last 19 minutes of the 11 May B session... 12:56PDT.... this is an important price reversal count... one that I apply often, but it was not applied to last nights trade), which was a 33% bounce from the 11 May high-low range, i.e., 198 points. Restsistance is defined as three attempts and a failure. The Three Line Strike (Pit Bull Three candlestick) and the fractal breakdown are increasingly good reasons to be short from the early A sessions. This short is based on the -2.618% of the Stretch basis trading from unchanged, i.e., 12519. Stretch = 30 (12597 - 30 = 12567), 1.618% = 78 12597 - 78 = 12549, 2.618% of the Stretch = 78 ... 12597 - 78 = 12519. My short reversal to long, i.e., unchanged failed by 2.618% of the Stretch ... I when long at 07:06PDT, 12512, when YMM1 prices fell -2.618% of the Stretch from unchanged (2.618% of the Stretch price moves tend to reverse) and am now flat after offsetting that 12512 long (07:06PDT) at 12549 (07:12PDT).+85 and +27 points, two trades... +122 points. I waited for the one minute YMM1 with Bollinger Bands to print a basing pattern around the 12500 (low 12504) handle. Prices held on the third attempt, which increased the -2.618% of the Stretch reversal. If I made another trade today, it would statistically be a loss. I'm out of the trading chair. Happy trading.
Hi,
YMM1 12 May A & B sessions trading. Clarification ... YMM1 prices failed to trade above 12600 after failing a first attempt at 12602 (followed by a quick 30 point dip on a few dozen contracts), a re-test of 12600 (12603 failed). The entry at the previous settlement was after the first failure at 12602 (there was a thirty point drop while I was eating dinner), which dip slowly lifted back up to unchanged and ... here's my point... prices failed 12600. I'm sure the pattern recognition was conveyed, but, nonetheless I felt clarification that the 12600 handle failed was warranted.
great trades hunter...thanks for the detailed explanation btw...you can continue to post them in this thread so that we can learn more of your technique....

quick question, would you have taken a long at the start of the A session off the -1 stretch off settlement? ...it was good for 30-35 points before all those failures at 12600 and reversal...did not take it, but was watching it and seemed ok at the time
was hoping the es would go to its 1.618 at the open which would have likely pushed ym to its 2.618 stretch...that would have been the ideal scenario for me to get long...