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Verifying Hunters method


Starting this journal to properly understand Hunter's method and also run the method through the paces. Will start from Sun (5/14)

For the first trade:
YMM1 settled at 12556
Stretch: 37
1.612 of 37=59.64; say 60
Fade first move at either:
12556-60=12496
or
12556+60=12616
whichever occurs first.
S/L @20 points after trade trigerred
Take profit at 3x37
12496+111=12607
or
12616-111=12505
where is your stop loss?

Originally posted by Hunter

Basis YMM1 fading 1.618% of the Stretch, added new longs to 12524 long, i.e., 12496 (low= 12489).
Thanks for the RT updates....was at a kids BBall game.
But the site comes in pretty good on the phone.
Machines took the 496 long.....
Now lets see if it can make it through the asia and EU session....
Looks like it could have another wave down.....

The Pivot is 592.....
YMM1 longs, 12524 and 12496, ... average, 12510. Stop 12483. Rational: The first trade faded at the Stretch, bearing additional risk than the -1.618% of the Stretch entry. Stop: A twenty point stop produced unnecessary risk because if prices made a new low, 12488, a continued decline was imminent.
YMM1 long average: 12510
Stop loss: 12483
This long is starting spend more time at my price than is desireable.
Hunter, What is a "desirable time" for this method?

Originally posted by Hunter

YMM1 longs, 12524 and 12496, ... average, 12510. Stop 12483. Rational: The first trade faded at the Stretch, bearing additional risk than the -1.618% of the Stretch entry. Stop: A twenty point stop produced unnecessary risk because if prices made a new low, 12488, a continued decline was imminent.
YMM1 long average: 12510
Stop loss: 12483
This long is starting spend more time at my price than is desireable.
first trade with Hunters method successful:

Long @12496
Close @12607

profit +111.

paper rade
It worked on ES too......
Not on NQ though....
ES yeilded a little more $$....

110 out of YM per but
12 out of ES .......
So...........are we set up for tonight?
Are we buying or selling? Have to think now huh?

449?

I would have shorted YM-610, but I shorted ES instead....tonight would be Buy 1318, Short 1332.75? I am so in.....

NQ is down 80 points in 2 days........but ES is making more money, that's a change.
Buy 1318, Short 1332.75? yes, those are numbers.


Originally posted by grednfer

So...........are we set up for tonight?
Are we buying or selling? Have to think now huh?

449?

I would have shorted YM-610, but I shorted ES instead....tonight would be Buy 1318, Short 1332.75? I am so in.....

NQ is down 80 points in 2 days........but ES is making more money, that's a change.
Hi insyte,
Will you allow a few ticks to compensate if the high or low entry level was within a few ticks of entry or exit?

Based on the guidelines you set forth to "Verify Hunters Method," i.e., fade + / - 1.618% of the Stretch with a trade target projection equal to three Stretch calculations, there was no error of slippage based on your rules. Today's projected 1.618% of the Stretch missed the short entry by six ticks (at the high print, 12562), but would have easily satisfied the projected "three Stretch calculations below."




Was short YMM1 at 12492, stopped at 12508. Sold short, again, (12555) 13 points below 1.618% of the Stretch (12509 + 59 = 12568). The high print at 12562, is eight points below the (Stretch + 1.618% of the Stretch calculation). Covered the 12555 short at 12494, +61 pts less the 16 points from the first trade = +45 points @ $5 per tick = +$225 per contract.
Thanks for posting your shared mutual interests. Last night I faded the first move by the Stretch calculation, risked eight YMZ1 (December $5 Dow futures), and opened a trailing stop, which was filled. The trailing stop performed with the offset. The (3) of (3, -1) didn't complete the price action projection. Knowing whether to fade the Stretch or 1.618% of the Stretch calculation is determined by the trader's perspective, not a cookie cutter price following mechanism. It's more useful as a price level assessment tool that can be used to identify whether an entry / exit is wise.

Here's my post elsewhere:
YMZ1 (December $5 Dow futures): Trading the (3, -1) formula from unchanged, ... fading the first move at the Stretch (46 pts) calculation (because every attempt above 12000 has failed recently), i.e., 12007 + 46 = 12053 (high = 12060, so far, risking $40 at one tick above the high). This represents the faded entry, i.e., (-1) of (3, -1). 12053 - 46 - 46 - 46 = 11915.

Insyte: I didn't post through the Summer, but am interested in your back testing of the (3, -1) formula. A physicist published the formula about ten years ago. The markets are mecurial and I don't expect a consistent long term tool. But, I have noticed that it works well when professional traders are gaming the system.... like when 'they' are waiting for global uncertainty to stabilize, or not.

The (3,-1) intra-day trading technique, like anything else, is not perfect. A few months ago you could sell the equity indicies when Europe's markets opened and buy back that short when those markets in Europe closed. Just an example of how nothing lasts, however, this price action pattern does tend to repeat on and off through each year. Earlier this year, for several weeks, sideways price action was rotating around 1.618% and 2.618% of the Stretch, but within the typical price action that tends to print directly or inversely around 4.25% of the Stretch.

Yorkmax: I started intra-day trading equity index futures in 1984 and have seen many different technical analysis tools perform well at times, but not at other times. (Ken Shaleen sells a Technical Analysis Characteristic Reliability Index, which I can summarize. Equity index futures are one of the worst markets when technical analysis is applied to, and tends to produce less than tradeable probabilities (+72%). You can't buy the strategy, but you can learn when, and how to use it. Sometimes the (3, -1) formula initiates an opportunity with mid-session support / resistance.

Special note: The Delta Society has published a tool, The Delta Phenomenon, which allows for a new beginning, i.e., instead of 1-10, as they count, it prints, 1, 1A, 2-10. They've (reportedly, and I have their book,) 200+ years of data to back up their "formula," or "theory," or "recipe," or whatever you want to call it. For the purposes of bright, brief and gone, look on a daily 45 Dow futures chart and pick a low, counting four days. The equity index futures are notoriously late by a day or two, but on the first late day, the odds of a reversal increase to 70%, and on the second late day the odds of a reversal increase to +80%.

My point, I've been recognizing that alternate ... 1, 1A, ... (3, -1) price projection.

I am looking forward to your shared mutual interests.