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ES Day Trading 5-24-2011


PP to S1 52.8% 1312.75 (2T from O/N Low)
PP to R1 52.8% 1321.25 (O/N High)
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1618
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seasonalmayspx
And finally, courtesy of sentiment trader..."In the history of the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), there were 17 times that it gapped down at least -0.5% the morning following option expiration, and closed at least -1% lower.



From Monday's close through Friday's close, SPY rallied 16 of those 17 times, averaging a return of +2.4%. The maximum loss during the week averaged -0.9% while the maximum gain averaged +2.9%.



When we combine that tendency with the now-somewhat-compelling number of short-term oversold readings, a bounce looks increasingly likely. The main roadblock is that now we have the first technical failure since mid-March."...good luck gang!
Here's a daily chart showing some fibs that we seem to bouncing around in. If we break below that 1312.50 area, I think we may make it all the way down to 1293.50 area.

However, I'm not counting on that. Based on the fibs, my target is new highs.

O/N Volume Profile.


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onprofile05242011
I like that 15.50 area for a retest...ON high will tell us if we are right......24 - 26 is price zone for bulls to try and take over...short bias
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1619
Originally posted by BruceM

I like that 15.50 area for a retest...ON high will tell us if we are right......24 - 26 is price zone for bulls to try and take over...short bias


I second all that, but perhaps for different reasons.

15.75 is the gap fill, watching for a re-test. (if we go above 21.25 first, careful of lower)

24-24.50 is R1, a fib from my chart posted above, and 52.8% of Monday's RTH range projection upward. That area, up to yesterday's O/N high (1327), is where I see the bulls need to break above to take over, as you mention.

Daniel
I want to get in the bull camp, but the thing that really irks me is that we didn't hit that 1308.25 yesterday. Makes it feel like unfinished business to the downside.

S1 is on top of that level, FYI. Not saying we will see that today.
New Home Sales in ~2min.
You are right it should show like this.
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may2511