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ES Day Trading 5-26-2011


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may2611
I ran a program that optimized the stretch over the past month based on possible trade scenarios..........4......use 4....

You know this methodology first originated over 20+ years ago and at that time, the market and supporting technology was very different. Crabel's description of the method is vague and not as substantiated by "algorithmic" math as one can easily do today.

So in my opinion, the method needs to be updated, as so does his math.....Who would I be if I didn't try to improve it?

Thats why I ask if anybody else uses this.....obviously someone is based on the volume I'm seeing around the RLs......

There is a connecting cycle to the method as well. If you trade "manually" the 2 and 4 level LONG trades have excellent probabilty, even in a down trend....3 point stop, min target=7, range 7-21.
thanks, just wanted to make sure i wasn't missing anything, that's all
No Problem......
Methodlogies tend to be frameworks and understanding the lack of of tech at the time he probably used his thumb to guesstimate the 10 day moving average......oversimplfying I'm sure.

If you look at the chart.....does it look wrong? Or does it look very very right......it looks like that every day. This morning they were just backing up truck @1312-14 level.

His base method is very accurate....even some decades later....its works on everything I've pointed it at.....

Understanding the cycle is not crtical as each day is new.....but cycle position can increase probability of the event outcome.....if you review this week you'll see a cycle low with a
1. 2.618 long Night +11 then
2. 1.618 long Morn +18 then
3. 1 long then +15
4. tomorrow......we'll see right?....down cycle could begin again....but if you short a stretch failure you'll catch the big drop.