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Stretch June 01


1st of the month is supposed to be an up day right? DX ,GBPUSD giving a good steer so far , once DX doesnt start taking off to the upside (above settlement) I'll be looking for support. The red dotted line on the chart is weekly R1 , it was ignored on the way up yday but line to see it lined up with the -100% stretch

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dow2
PP to R1 52.8% is at 37.25... 1T from the low so far.

Since the PP (40.25) was sliced through with ease 45min ago, I pretend it isn't there. Taking a measurement from R1 to S1, the 78.6% is at 37.75... also 1T from the low.

Lots of news at 9am CST... may make for a slow first 30min. Still looking for that push upwards to 44.25 GF.
got long ym at 392, right at the 4.854 stretch number; had some support below at the low 380 level and s2 below that. Took most of it off around the 420 level because i was buying es as well down at 27.25 (in between 4.236 and 4.854 and 1 tick away from the 52.8% retrace between s1 and s2), which i unloaded at 30.25. Double the risk made look for scalps rather than longer term trades

nq now parked at its -2.618...it was slow to react to overall weakness in other markets so if it bounces from could give ym and es an extra boost

dx irrelevant to stock trading today...with the weak data there is no way the dollar can outperform and stocks cannot perform well either even with dx lower as the economy grows at a subpar rate and the fed has their hands tied
I'm doing ES......

It was another PERFECT Stretch trade.
Lower Stretch Failure in the morning....then a back test.....
very precise!

Drained all the way to the 4.236 level....where they are now loading up! They hold it down there and load up over several strikes.

Also a backtest of May down Channel.
YMM1 has declined 4.25% of today's Stretch calculation (144) and an additional twenty points lower than -144 points from unchanged. The extra 24 points below -4.25% of the Stretch from unchanged printed 12390 (those 24 points are .64% of the Stretch calculation) produced the initial low, 12390, and reversed up approximately the Stretch (and are correcting to probably re-test the 12390 June e-mini $5 Dow futures low.
I'm going back to the river ... fishing. Good fishing for profits to you today.
ym stopped exactly at 324, the 6.854x stretch (4.236 * 1.618 )from unch, ...was not looking at it per se, but interesting still
very good I didnt go as far as putting the 485.4 and 685 on the chart, added to downside, doubt it will be eeded on upside and have run out of spaced in by fib tool
is cool


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dowjune
Just as an FYI, I've found you get a better trade with retracements if you wait for the momentum to change......like using an EMA 4-10 crossover in a retracement zone will help.....

ES hasn't had one yet but is very close....around the 22 level.

BTW....the stretch trades that I refer to are the Toby Crabel trades.....So I will prefix it with TC.....to avoid confusion over the 3,-1 stretch trade.
Whata drain......exited my short too early......

Still no change in MO down, down, down......
do you look at a 5m chart for mo ? i bet shorter than that would be misleading at times with those quick 4-10 ema
Its funny.... I know a lot of folks who were pretty bullish yesterday......well that was yesterday.

This TC stretch trade has a good track record so far......I think the most it has ever penetrated into one of my stops is 1 point.....

They are buying my ES puts afterhours for much more than the closing price so that means there is more down-side to come. The market makers know all.