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stretch calculation during rollover


hunter, grendfer, silverharp et al

how do you adjust the calculations to arrive at the stretch number when contracts roll ? do you use 10 days of history for the new contract from the get go or use data for the old contract which will be progressively replaced as days go by ?

mypivots calculates the stretch for each individual expiration of each contract so i assume they are going with the first option, but just wanted to double check what the rest did

thanks
Hi,
The Stretch calculations during the roll over transition are provided at the www.mypivots.com website. Today's September $5 Dow Stretch is 27. Today's June $5 Dow Stretch is 30. The numbers are usually close to one another. Good to hear your shared mutual interests.

The 6 June (3, -1) formula price projection reversals:

Today's June $5 Dow never reached the pivot point, 12152 (high: 12142). Trading from unchanged, 12125,
12125 + 17 to 12142 (high:12142), reversed down to unchanged,... 12125 - 17 - 17 - 17 12174

If you subtracted the test of the pivot point, 12142 ...
12142 - 30 - 30 - 30 = 12052 (6 June low: 12057).

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The calculations I make are the same in any market .. why would the stretch calculation be different @ rollover
when contracts rollover your chart will have a combination of the old and new contracts, right? hence, it does not seem too crazy to me to may be have the stretch calculated using a combination of data for both contracts. That is what i was asking about, but apparently it is not the case; once the contract rolls over then the stretch apparently is calculated using data exclusively for the new contract.
Thanks for the reply;

I use the same calculation for M as I do for U .. the thing that makes the difference is the volume .. I will go to U when the volume overtakes the M .. I didn't know the stretch calculation was different at rollover
thanks

it is not different...i was confused and wanted someone who has been using the methodology for some time to clarify it for me...when the contract rolls, call it after this thursday, then just data for the U contract is used in the calculation; and that is exactly what you have been doing apparently, so nothing to worry about

Originally posted by redsixspeed

Thanks for the reply;

I use the same calculation for M as I do for U .. the thing that makes the difference is the volume .. I will go to U when the volume overtakes the M .. I didn't know the stretch calculation was different at rollover

Click image for original size
chart
"They" sold the top of that zone .. O.K. I want step on your thread anymore ..
Thanks for clearing up rollover and the stretch ...
thanks for the charts redsixspeed
Originally posted by ayn

thanks for the charts redsixspeed


You know that you can "vote up" any post that you like right?
I wouldn't be as concerned with the "fundamental" stretch calc as "real" stretch calc.....which can be defined by how the prices are trading consistently over time......like ES.....website says 3.13 which may be right fundamentally, but in trading terms its still 4.
Given that the stretch does move around I have wondered would an average figure do. if 4 was mentioned for SPX, 35 would be the YM number? The other issue worth considering is using the fib multiples versus just having say X2 X3. Personally I think the breakout of the stretch range is the key thing to look for, the rest are just targets to focus the eye. For instance gold today went to Stretch 100% then -200% and then back up to settlement, so selling the resistance of the stretch was the key trade, how good the trade will be is up in the air, target 1 would be settlement the next target would be -100 then ideally it breaks out to give the main trend for the day.