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question for koolblue


not long ago you posted your projections from the daily chart, the 1.618 of 1295 and change that was hit a week or so ago and the 2.618 of 1247.25. This projections were used using the jun contract. My question is do you adjust that 2.618 (or for that matter any other projections still outstanding) to reflect the roll or do you keep looking at the same projected numbers ?

thank you
Excellent question.. those numbers were for the june es which is expiring ,of course, this week. there are two ways to look at this. At expiration,the June contract ,in effect becomes the cash index.So now id be watching the cash to hit 1247. The other way (which i prefer) is to use the sept contract numbers which has its 2.618 at 1239 and change... that's what i look to be hit. However ,this market is so bearish right now, with QE 2 expiring that it is possible the 4.236 is what she really wants... time will tell. Its going to take a catalyst to turn this thing around , which i perceive may be a budget agreement in congress..stay tuned!!!
Kool,

I've read where some traders trade differently around the time of a full moon. I would guess they would also trade differently at the time of a Lunar Eclipse.

What do you think
i deal with both in the same way... they are both associated with peaks in emotion, and thats why they so frequently occur near short term tops or bottoms...however, like sentiment, i pay attention to them but do not use them exclusively to enter or exit a position. rather, i use them as confirming indicators of an already established view based on my cycles and price projections... for example, i remember Kools tools clearly called for a short term low around last friday (4/29 to 5/19 and 5/19 to 5/31). the actual low came in mon morning at 1259.50. Now all the 'experts' were(and most still are) calling for a rebound lasting at least several days to a few weeks!(due mainly to how incredibly oversold the market has become) Well kools tools has a weekly cycle low coming around early July, but not yet!Also as you may know kools tools price projections are for still lower prices at around 1239 minimum. So last nite when i noticed the full moon, i thought that it may mark a short term peak, surprising most analysts, as my other work is still calling for lower prices.therefore i was selling today, not buying and had a very good day..In other words the astro stuff merely reinforced an already existing view...just for fun, heres the last several new and full moons... make up your own mind if you think they have any relevance!...lol
Click image for original size
sc
kool, how are you arriving at 239? i assume you are using the projections on the daily chart? if so i have for the sep contract the move down from 367.5 to 319.75, which gives a 2.618 of 242.5 or so

on a related note, the s&p cash hit its 2.618 of 262 (370.6 to 329.2 move) almost to the tick today
Thanks Kool,

After today I will pay more attention to these events.

pics of the Lunar Eclipse:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13786517