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Looking for trend following ideas


Anybody wanna throw out some ideas for trend following strategies? Anything remotely sensible is welcome. In return I will test out whatever I choose and share the results.
you havent offered any concrete definitions such as what counts as "getting your ass kicked". also strong trend days, like everything else, are easy to spot after the fact...the question he asked you was how do you determine it before hand.
Originally posted by feng456

you havent offered any concrete definitions such as what counts as "getting your ass kicked". also strong trend days, like everything else, are easy to spot after the fact...the question he asked you was how do you determine it before hand.


I remember one trader defining "getting your ass kicked" as losing 3 trades in a row trying to trade against the market. He said that was his cue to go with the trend. Of course by then half the trading session is over.

You can also use probability tables to determine the probability of a day being a trend day. For example MATD says we go sideways in the morning so after a trend day the probability of another trend day is low. However, as we saw 2 weeks ago this is only a probability and not a hard and fast rule.
Good point DT I didn't take into consideration persons that take only a few trades per day. For me three trades can be completed in as little as 10 minutes which leaves plenty of time for the rest of the day to catch back up.

You're pretty right on with your description of " getting my butt kicked".

Feng, I only use 2 types of charts a 55 tick candlestick (which is useless for recognizing a trend) and a 12 tick range bar chart which allows me to look at the market with a different aspect. On the range bar chart if the bars are steep, open at there low, close at their high (uptrend) and have little in the way of pullbacks and continue doing this in a relentless fashion I consider this a strong trend day.

I don't use any indicators, MP, FIbs, MAs or anything else so I am heavily reliant on how the charts LOOK to me. I do draw trend lines but not to trade off just to see how the market responds to these areas which can offer another clue as to whether a strong trend is present. Also I take into consideration the news and how that will affect the market.
Has anyone read Michael Covel's "The Complete Turtle Trader" or tried to trade the 'turtle system'? Reviews of the book say different things about Covel's motivation in writing the book, but if the text can be believed, the turtle system has certainly made a bunch of money from trend following.
Originally posted by Isaac

Has anyone read Michael Covel's "The Complete Turtle Trader" or tried to trade the 'turtle system'? Reviews of the book say different things about Covel's motivation in writing the book, but if the text can be believed, the turtle system has certainly made a bunch of money from trend following.


The turtle system or some variation of a breakout strategy likely still works. It's simple enough it could probably be tested in something as basic as Excel.

It's not for everyone though. That approach does tend to have a high percentage of losing trades. Gotta give respect to the turtle traders for not worrying about any of that.
"
It's not for everyone though. That approach does tend to have a high percentage of losing trades. Gotta give respect to the turtle traders for not worrying about any of that.
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Yeah, it's a lot easier when it's someone else's money.