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ES Wed 9-21-11


Don't forget that today is a Fed Day. Resources for today:

All fed rates over last 21 years:
http://www.mypivots.com/trading/fedrates

The ES on the previous 113 Fed Days:
http://www.mypivots.com/trading/feddays
Originally posted by tradezilla

However, I do have to say I don't understand why the enthusiastic vote downs on my rep.. I've basically given aways years of expensive experience and many good calls at your disposal.. You can clearly see that the calls are mostly accurate and explained how I came to those conclusions but its all good... At the end of the day, its just between us and our account balance.. GN all

Take it easy, man. Probably just a hint to reduce the frequency of posts and keep them at "levels and reasons". As I mentioned before, the traders here do not read the Forum often enough to catch up-to-minute posts.
"levels and reasons" is just a matter of perpective and we're all looking for different types of input to improve our trading.. I wouldn't be able to keep this up anyways and trade effectively.. In hind sight, there were many reasons why I should've passed on that long @70.50..
Originally posted by destiny

Originally posted by destiny

Originally posted by destiny

Originally posted by destiny

Originally posted by destiny

No decent set ups in es due to FOMC pending news but CL made an A up and never looked back. Hopefully soon i will be able to trade one more instrument - for a total of 3 - and will not try to force trades.
.

FOMC trade set up @ 2.24 pm. No time to think just trade .

http://www.screencast.com/t/kCs1pnh22


I did not traded as I wanted either. Today after 2.30 pm was like playing at SUPER BOWL.


I missed the original down move in CL due to FOMC news but I am sure not gonna miss this one as DXY maintained high levels.

http://www.screencast.com/t/0MTYsRQbd9c5


I do not traded as i wanted either. This is for analysis and reflection

http://www.screencast.com/t/aizvxKhhbaR



Someone asked for an explanation of a short level on bounce after 1st sell off at 2.30 eastern time. So, here is my thinking.


Someone asked me about importance of 1190. 1190 is only important because that was the level taken out when FOMC news came out. Some traders may have more elaborate explanation. I keep it simple. If at 2.30 pm 1186 was the level instead of 1190, then 1186 is important level for me.

Anything before 2.30 pm is of interest to me. New facts came out at 2.30 and market responded. As long as facts have not changed today, to me shorting 1190 area on bounces is a free gift from trading GOD.

I just get amazed that we get opportunity to short at the same level where first sell off started after the news. I feel for traders who were trying to get long on bounce as a sign of strength.

I do not blame them. It has happened many times over last 6 weeks that after a sell off , E-mini bounced 30-60 handles.

However, today one thing was different. Due to strength in DXY, trade was RISK OFF and as long dxy showed strength, I am shorting the hell out of 1190 level.
Originally posted by destiny

Originally posted by destiny

Originally posted by destiny

Originally posted by destiny

Originally posted by destiny

Originally posted by destiny

No decent set ups in es due to FOMC pending news but CL made an A up and never looked back. Hopefully soon i will be able to trade one more instrument - for a total of 3 - and will not try to force trades.
.

FOMC trade set up @ 2.24 pm. No time to think just trade .

http://www.screencast.com/t/kCs1pnh22


I did not traded as I wanted either. Today after 2.30 pm was like playing at SUPER BOWL.


I missed the original down move in CL due to FOMC news but I am sure not gonna miss this one as DXY maintained high levels.

http://www.screencast.com/t/0MTYsRQbd9c5


I do not traded as i wanted either. This is for analysis and reflection

http://www.screencast.com/t/aizvxKhhbaR



Someone asked for an explanation of a short level on bounce after 1st sell off at 2.30 eastern time. So, here is my thinking.


Someone asked me about importance of 1190. 1190 is only important because that was the level taken out when FOMC news came out. Some traders may have more elaborate explanation. I keep it simple. If at 2.30 pm 1186 was the level instead of 1190, then 1186 is important level for me.

Anything before 2.30 pm is of interest to me. New facts came out at 2.30 and market responded. As long as facts have not changed today, to me shorting 1190 area on bounces is a free gift from trading GOD.

I just get amazed that we get opportunity to short at the same level where first sell off started after the news. I feel for traders who were trying to get long on bounce as a sign of strength.

I do not blame them. It has happened many times over last 6 weeks that after a sell off , E-mini bounced 30-60 handles.

However, today one thing was different. Due to strength in DXY, trade was RISK OFF and as long dxy showed strength, I am shorting the hell out of 1190 level.



Correction " Anything before 2.30 pm is of NO INTEREST to me", I meant to say.
Destiny,
That was a generous post and a true learning opportunity for all the readers.. I wished I thought of that and took that short with you.. The price B4 2:30 made me see a ledge that was irrelevant and look for a lower pivot but it makes perfect sense..
Much thanks,
TZ
My execution to the long side today was horrible.. The lesson is - In a counter trend trade especially a strong counter trend such as today, always wait for the reversal and retest because odds are good you'll likely get it and not miss the trade.. This meant clearing 70.50 (or any level you like) decisively and coming back down to retest that price and not re-enter that zone, which would have been a much better entry.. Also, although I had the chart of the DX on another screen, I didn't even look at it.. It was in clear strong upsurge which meant the bounce is likely to be weak and not worth the risk.. In addition, often when trend goes against S/R, always assume trend will win UNTIL it show you otherwise with a retest failure... Choosing trade location over confirmation during counter trends is usually a bad choice..

This is my final contribution of this kind to close the day... I'll likely post after the market going forward..
Appreciate the sentiment but it's not about that. It was an event trade(earnings,fed,etc...) He/She who hesitates is lost.
No news. No volume. Price is always the leading indicator. :)
1998 was resistance. Didn't make it?
Stopped at 1996.50 I think.
The 1182 target was missed by a tick. Took about 4 minutes top to bottom. That was the event.
Correction stopped below 1189. Other levels represented in corrections/ pauses and 1260 exceeded. Extension.
This was posted pre fed announcement. The objective is to be right, in the trade, even if 98 was hit.

Originally posted by destiny

Originally posted by DavidS

Trade plan
1- shoots up to 1193.50 or higher to 1197, short as 1198 R level
2-drops below lod, go with it using 1189, 1187 as s/r line
1181-2 the 38%, target below that would be 1175,1171, or lower(1160)
above 1198 will reevaluate
between em all is 1193.50 key level imo and working good above and below so far today
1189 should have been a buy signal? there's a message there somewhere 1193.50 the key to me
maybe will muddle around in the area
Magic Beans!


You were right on the MONEY. CONGRATULATIONS.
using price as leading indicator
thinking overall down but subject to change my mind