No registration required! (Why?)

ES Tuesday 10-4-11


I'm hoping to post these charts through the end of the week so we can see how these price distributions (bell curves) interact. The new user to this stuff should be concentrating on finding the key areas and drawing in the bell curves.

Today left us with two very distinct bell curves. A double distribution day separated by low volume in the middle. Viewers looking to get better should focus on the volume histogram and draw your high and low volume areas based on that without looking at the price bars.

Hopefully we will get an upmove overnight so we have something to work with in the RTH session tomorrow morning. We will formulate some trade ideas once we see which side of the bell curves price will be entering from in the morning.

It is my experience that highs and lows will form more often based off the low volume areas from previous days and not the high volume areas from previous days. This is opposite from what that Enthios site teaches and the natural true range method but as usual I encourage everyone to do their own research.

This chart below includes overnight data but only because my IB charts display the histograms better once the day is complete. So I am posting it this way only to present a better visual and no other reason. I do not think you need to incorporate the overnight volume because it is too low.
Click image for original size
doubledistribution2
I agree....it gets tricky and all of us get confused....I'm using that december low...see Kools chart and the S1 level as my initial support so 1170 - 1172 is the key area for me early on
December low?


Originally posted by BruceM

I agree....it gets tricky and all of us get confused....I'm using that december low...see Kools chart and the S1 level as my initial support so 1170 - 1172 is the key area for me early on
Originally posted by Lorn

December low?


Originally posted by BruceM

I agree....it gets tricky and all of us get confused....I'm using that december low...see Kools chart and the S1 level as my initial support so 1170 - 1172 is the key area for me early on



Wasn't that Koolio's projection, not an actual low?

Thank you for answering my prior question Lorn. I appreciate seeing you post again!
point of clarity:
December Low

whatever you want to call it, however you can justifiably discount its importance, it is the 1072 area that is on the chart as the spike low of 8/12/2011 adjusted in what ever way to fit the DEC contract.

Look at the chart right now.

that AUgust 2011 spike low, no matter whether it is statistically correct or not, was in the 1072 area, and price has risen since testing that level this morning. at least some buyers showed up at that price.

If price tests that level again -or- if price dips and doesn't get that low, a move to the upside is going to put the fear of a squeeze in the fast money. IMHO
I show August Low is 71.25
Originally posted by lovedgor

I show August Low is 71.25


SO do I, but can tell from personal experience that when the markets get this far out of normal ranges, the bigger the distance from envelope of normality, the less important the exact price point.

No matter whether that 1072 area acts like support on a retest or not,
The price action is what matters. it will tell you whether you are right or wrong, short or long.

Bernanke speaks on the hill at 10am: if he has distributed the content of his speech to the media, the embargo on divulgence will end at 10am.
peak volume from O/N is right at 86.25 settlement.......I expect that to be tested earlyo and my bias is to the longs side until we get near the 94 -95
nice to see ya back posting Paul!!
bruce do you see the over night lows at 83.50 83.75??
no overnight lows r being tested now and if it wasn't for the 10 am report I'd be looking to buy down here.....patience !!!
Here's a 3 minute self explanatory chart for my posts here at the forum.
Lisa, I don't know what you are referring to when asking about second level. But, we can talk about numbers and S/Rs and that's what I was looking at 12:53 as seeing in the chart below.

I hope this helps in some way. Seeing and playing S/Rs in conjunction with your system.


Originally posted by sandoxe

Got back from lunch and ES was moving with good momo and true my 1089.00 and here we are, just hit the objective at 1102.00

ES now trading 1105.75 @ 15:48
Originally posted by sandoxe

ES keeps testing 1089 but fail to move above it with some momo. Will wait.
ES now trading 1087.50 @ 13:56 E.T

Time for some delicious lunch hmmmmm.


Originally posted by sandoxe

I'm looking to buy from 1089.00 S/R. will let it test a bit and see if sets up for me.
Objective 1097/ 1102.
ES now trading 1088.75 @ 13:34
In due time will show us the way.




Click image for original size
sandoxe sp 500 es 3 minute chart 10042011