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ES Tuesday 10-4-11


I'm hoping to post these charts through the end of the week so we can see how these price distributions (bell curves) interact. The new user to this stuff should be concentrating on finding the key areas and drawing in the bell curves.

Today left us with two very distinct bell curves. A double distribution day separated by low volume in the middle. Viewers looking to get better should focus on the volume histogram and draw your high and low volume areas based on that without looking at the price bars.

Hopefully we will get an upmove overnight so we have something to work with in the RTH session tomorrow morning. We will formulate some trade ideas once we see which side of the bell curves price will be entering from in the morning.

It is my experience that highs and lows will form more often based off the low volume areas from previous days and not the high volume areas from previous days. This is opposite from what that Enthios site teaches and the natural true range method but as usual I encourage everyone to do their own research.

This chart below includes overnight data but only because my IB charts display the histograms better once the day is complete. So I am posting it this way only to present a better visual and no other reason. I do not think you need to incorporate the overnight volume because it is too low.
Click image for original size
doubledistribution2
ES is moving up towards 1097 double top hourly bar. Hourly trend is up. so, if taking a short here will be double the risk.

will see.

ES now trading 1096.75.
Originally posted by sandoxe

I like to see an hourly bar double top to go short here at 1097.00. The objective will be near 1083. or so (50% ret). Have to be careful if shorting bc the long projection is to 1111.00/1114.00 or so.

ES now trading 1093.50 @ 12:27
We are also under yesterday's volume. IF we enter it, target would be yesterday's POC (black line, volume)

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2011 10 041251
Well ES hit 1097.00 making a double top on hourly bar I'm short 1096.50 with the stp at 1097.50. The objective here's to 1083 or so.

ES now trading 1094.75 @ 1254


Originally posted by sandoxe

I like to see an hourly bar double top to go short here at 1097.00. The objective will be near 1083. or so (50% ret). Have to be careful if shorting bc the long projection is to 1111.00/1114.00 or so.

ES now trading 1093.50 @ 12:27
good call sandoxe I,m still trying to figure out how to arrive at some of the readings off MP, (still green) not sure how i should have my MP chart set up..
Moving stp down to 1094.50
ES now trading 1091.75 @ 13:04
Originally posted by sandoxe

Well ES hit 1097.00 making a double top on hourly bar I'm short 1096.50 with the stp at 1097.50. The objective here's to 1083 or so.

ES now trading 1094.75 @ 1254


Originally posted by sandoxe

I like to see an hourly bar double top to go short here at 1097.00. The objective will be near 1083. or so (50% ret). Have to be careful if shorting bc the long projection is to 1111.00/1114.00 or so.

ES now trading 1093.50 @ 12:27

Originally posted by sandoxe

I like to see an hourly bar double top to go short here at 1097.00. The objective will be near 1083. or so (50% ret). Have to be careful if shorting bc the long projection is to 1111.00/1114.00 or so.

ES now trading 1093.50 @ 12:27

Sandoxe,when you done with this trade, would you please explain the reason for expecting double top on hourly chart in a rising "primary move". Thanks.
I have 1089.00 as S/R - ES hit the 1089 and bounced back up. I will consider taking profits at 1091 if the ES hits again and bounces one more time. stop now at 1093.00
ES now trading 1089.50 @ 13:12
Originally posted by sandoxe

Moving stp down to 1094.50
ES now trading 1091.75 @ 13:04
Originally posted by sandoxe

Well ES hit 1097.00 making a double top on hourly bar I'm short 1096.50 with the stp at 1097.50. The objective here's to 1083 or so.

ES now trading 1094.75 @ 1254


Originally posted by sandoxe

I like to see an hourly bar double top to go short here at 1097.00. The objective will be near 1083. or so (50% ret). Have to be careful if shorting bc the long projection is to 1111.00/1114.00 or so.

ES now trading 1093.50 @ 12:27


Out at 1086,50
ES hit 38% at 1086.00
ES now trading 1088.25 @ 13:16
Originally posted by sandoxe

I have 1089.00 as S/R - ES hit the 1089 and bounced back up. I will consider taking profits at 1091 if the ES hits again and bounces one more time. stop now at 1093.00
ES now trading 1089.50 @ 13:12
Originally posted by sandoxe

Moving stp down to 1094.50
ES now trading 1091.75 @ 13:04
Originally posted by sandoxe

Well ES hit 1097.00 making a double top on hourly bar I'm short 1096.50 with the stp at 1097.50. The objective here's to 1083 or so.

ES now trading 1094.75 @ 1254


Originally posted by sandoxe

I like to see an hourly bar double top to go short here at 1097.00. The objective will be near 1083. or so (50% ret). Have to be careful if shorting bc the long projection is to 1111.00/1114.00 or so.

ES now trading 1093.50 @ 12:27



seems like they want that 83.75 again.....many will use closes above or below the low volume on 30 minute to try and signal continuation....we have not closed above our upper key volume area on the 30 minute yet today and may not
at some point in time during these "Bell" postings I want to have the market give us an example where we firm up at these low volume zones and have it go get the peak volume from the bell curve..Lisa alluded to this earlier....sometimes by the time the 30 minute close comes we are almost to a high volume target....so it is best to watch a lower time frame and see if resistance becomes support...

In todays example you would have wanted to see the 93.75 - 95.75 turn into support to go target the 1102.50 area...
Here's a 3 minute self explanatory chart for my posts here at the forum.
Lisa, I don't know what you are referring to when asking about second level. But, we can talk about numbers and S/Rs and that's what I was looking at 12:53 as seeing in the chart below.

I hope this helps in some way. Seeing and playing S/Rs in conjunction with your system.


Originally posted by sandoxe

Got back from lunch and ES was moving with good momo and true my 1089.00 and here we are, just hit the objective at 1102.00

ES now trading 1105.75 @ 15:48
Originally posted by sandoxe

ES keeps testing 1089 but fail to move above it with some momo. Will wait.
ES now trading 1087.50 @ 13:56 E.T

Time for some delicious lunch hmmmmm.


Originally posted by sandoxe

I'm looking to buy from 1089.00 S/R. will let it test a bit and see if sets up for me.
Objective 1097/ 1102.
ES now trading 1088.75 @ 13:34
In due time will show us the way.




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sandoxe sp 500 es 3 minute chart 10042011