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ES Friday 10-14-2011


Big Low Volume support at 1198.

Current O/N high traded to the LVN from Wed. of 1210.50. Above that is 1214-1216.


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esvwap10142011
peak volume went from 14 down to 1211....not a great thing for bulls in theory. that 12.25 low volume just can't get filled up either....


so patience is called for and will look for buys in the 05 - 04 area...but even that is agressive
OK,
now that 1206 handle has printed I'll review the trade that got away.

Believe me, I am totally inspired to respect and use the volume profile as outlined by Bruce, but right now I have not fully integrated it into my trading. I will be doing that though.

here's a review of my trade.

I was looking for a swing H failure (H lower than previous swing H).

Swing H failure occurred on bar marked H1 (for all you Brooks followers)

What I need for a swing failure: a H greater than the H of the previous bar . Then a move below the previous L.

What I need to take a postion: 2 ticks below the previous Low.

The previous Low I am referring to has 2 arrows pointing at it.

That 2 arrow low was 1212.25. Entry at 2 ticks below that means 1211.75, filled at 1211.50. (3)

Remember I said that on a day with a pattern like this, it seems like 50% of the current day's RTH range is important. The 50% of today's range is the thick black line, judge for yourself.

Exited 1 contract at 2 pt profit.

Held 2, stop moved to 1 tick above entry (1211.75)

BAR marked H2 took the 2 contracts out at small loss (overall though total trade had a profit).

When short, I do not like to see an H2 (for people unfamiliar with Brooks, for corrections in uptrends, H1 is the first bar to print a H greater than the prior bar. H2 is the second time a High higher than the previous bar is printed. I think all you have to do is google Brooks and H1 H2. If viewing RTH only, price has been in an uptrend since yesterday near 1:00pm with the HL.

Was this trade a success? Yes and no. Yes, I didn't lose money; no, I could have danced a little faster.

Until a few months ago, I would have simply sold the retest of the H of 2 days ago (1216.00) with a stop 3 points above the H of 2 days ago. The trade I did today was more conservative because I waited for a price pattern confirmation (Swing H failure)

Lorn had the price level for shorting pegged right there on the first post of the first page of today's thread. there was an LVN 1214-1216. (I normally just sell the hammock formation and hope, but this morning I was a little foggy, I was up late last night and I was over-served. (there's a euphemism for you)

I am going to be trying to integrate volume observations (The LVNs HVNs, etc.) with price patterns I trade. I usually do not trade Friday afternoons.


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screenhunter01 oct 14 12 52
[Sorry I was not clear, which package do you pay for
Standard
Standard Plus
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Tony
[/quote]
Tony, Standard Plus
anyone who is long really would want to see that 10.50 turn into support and generate higher trade..closing below that nunber at 1:30 will be bad for the bulls...

You can see how the folks who bought the peak volume from Wednesday , the 1208 would want to try to push and hold outside the 1210.50 as that is wednesdays distribution highs...they want to recapture that and have it hold to continue to hold higher trade...while those others want to see failed breakouts now above there to bring us back down below that range...

The bottom line is that there are many watching the upper part of wednesdays distribution to try and get a clue as to what will happen for the rest of the day
Very cool Paul...I don't want folks to get the impression that this is only a volume profile chat room... I like to think that anything can be posted as long as it can be explained and potentially used by others..
over-served

Drunk. Intoxicated. Wasted. A clever way to own, through implied denial, the responsibility for drinking too much.
"I have a wicked hangover today, I was totally overserved last night."

haha...good one Paul!
[...The bottom line is that there are many watching the upper part of wednesdays distribution to try and get a clue as to what will happen for the rest of the day
[/quote]
Bruce, what do you call "top of Wednesday distribution"? 1210.50? 1214?

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2011 10 141327
my comments earlier about expecting 1204 - 1205 were made when we were below the 1208 number...the reality is that so far we have spent very little time under there today...I was expecting to see the 1210.50 area hold again but it hasn't...

We would really need to see price get below the 1210.50 area again and hold below there now to expect any kind of selling momentum...this would signify that once again they are accepting price inside that distribution from Wednesday...

right now the peak volume 1211...still not a great thing..the bulls want volume to be pulled up to higher levels...we are barely above the 1210.50...so the bulls and bears still have a battle to resolve.
1210.50 Lisa..in my world low volume areas always seperate distributions and comes above and below the bigger buldging part of the bell curve
Thanks Bruce
Below are some copied, pasted comments from yesterday's posts, and below that, today's chart with the same pivots from yesterday. In that chart you will see that, some of yesterday's pivotal levels worked well today too. This chart was also posted this morning at 03:00 (copy below) in Thursday's thread indicating we got another shot at 1216.00, today Friday the 14.
Some times you got to keep trying and trying, and if it's mean to be, it will be....
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sandoxe | 13-Oct-2011 at 5:18 AM
If the bulls still want to give it one more test to 1216, and possibly 1229 with good spike after that I'm Ok with it. Maybe today and tomorrow.
Below is the "before the fact chart" with the pivots set up for today. I'm buying at 1195.75, just above the daily trend line.
Initial stop at 1192.75.
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sandoxe | 13-Oct-2011 at 5:48 AM | Rep: 245 | Posts: 200 | mail
That was fast. I 'm lending the market $150.00 bucks. This is getting a bit bearish now that it has moved down below the support trend line. I gonna have to have my bear hat near by.
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sandoxe | 13-Oct-2011 at 3:02 PM
I gave it an other shot above the support trend line same price 1195.75 I'm at B.E. and will seat here till it gives me 1216 LOL
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sandoxe | 13-Oct-2011 at 3:43 PMl
What did you guys do? The market was doing well. now my stop got hit at B.E. -- Had and awesome day yesterday, and today I suck!

The market still owes me $ 150.00 bucks from this morning. hmmmm I need to see my self doing better, much better.........

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sp 500 es 10 minutes continuesafter the fact chart for 1014111610et


Here's the chart posted this morning at 03:00. I was a bit tire and did not put all the stuff in it and did not made a new one with the pivots for today. Just use the same. At the long run is the same thing all over again, as you saw in the above chart. The pivots worked just as good.


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sp 500 es 10 minutes chart pivots set up for 10 13 2011 after the fact chart


I see for you the same I see for my self: Having an awesome, incredible, fun, weekend, best ever!!!