ES Tuesday 10-18-11

We are declining into a big bell curve that is bounded by the 94 - 95 and the 85.25 - 86....everything in between those areas is just high volume consolidation. As usual the trades we take will be based on where we open in the day session.

Other areas of interest are the 1202.50 - 1205 and then 1209 - 1211.25.

Below we have 80 - 81 and 75 - 76. You can scroll back and see previous days entries and charts but I'd really like anyone reading to find the areas on their own if they find value in these trade concepts. We don't want to depend on anyone to derive our areas.

Here's what I had in the other topic for today (which Bruce I both must have posted within seconds of eachother)

GS just reported blah blah blah

so far, overnight range is 10.25 points

I didn't see a thread for today but I had an observation I wanted to make about today.

Yesterday had to have been a trend day, that makes today MATD Market After Trend Day.

I have no idea what is going to happen today, but I wanted to point out that over th past 5 trade days,

the average move from the Open of the day to the Low of the day = 8.50 points.

5 day average of the H of the day from the Open of the day = 8.00.

that means if you take today's open and subtract 8.50
and you take today's open and ADD 8.00, you will see what the average range for the past 5 RTH trade days has been.

I bring it up because on MATD, for the morning, consolidation and a search for direction is often the case. since that implies smaller range, and non-trend, IF price makes it to one or the other of the calculations I described above, I would be looking for price patterns of reversal because on the intraday short-term, price is probably at it's envelope of normalcy.

whoops, these old eyes don't work very well.

error above: the 5 day RTH average diff between the Open and the HOD is actually 8.80, not 8.00 as I reported above.

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here is the link:

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I have mentioned these folks recently on the forum too:

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they are having a free demo this morning and u can register here. I'm hoping to listen in a bit myself this morning if possible.

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I'm told they use many of the things we depend on here. The volume areas, the $ticks and the delta. I also mention it for those who may enjoy a formal structure. They have also been suggested by two of my online friends who have been traders a long time too. I spent years beating up vendors so if I find one that is legit then it should be mentioned. There is nothing wrong with paying money for QUALITY education. These folks may be a good match for some.

Perhaps honorable mentions on the forum will get those who join a discount. I have no financial interest in either of these companies.

Need to make an honorable mention to the low volume at 97.25. personally I don't like having too many areas or too wide of an area but that is a minor low volume area from yesterday and we have the current On high at 96.50 . so the 97.25 is a better number if we incorporate what happened in the O/N session

Best sells are really above that 1202 area as the low volume is very easy to see up there.

Lisa or anyone combining profiles. If u combine 10- 11, 10-12 and 10-13 u can easily see why the 85 - 86 becomes important. It isn't necessary to combine them but it makes a nice visual!!

now will they move up to 97. first at the open or before hats the closes

I cant even write

And so the hunt for shorts begins up the 97.50...it's after 9a.m so it is ok to look now !!

FWIW

Open was 1195.50

5 day average of H vs Open = 95.50 + 8.80 = 1204.25

5 day average of L vs Open = 95.50 - 8.50 = 1187.00

Using the projection from the initial up move yesterday afternoon from 1193.50-1199.50 gives a 2.618 projection to 1209.25, which is where the single print is also.

If this breaks lower, would be a small waterfall...

that 87 level is also a 600 xma of 5min RTH only bars first test in days, should produce some sort of bounce. If not, flush

600xma on 5min is equivalent to 200 period XMA on 15min and 50xma on hourly, many eyes watch.

Chaikin wrote about the 600xma (not my original observations)

I'm burned out from forum life...LOL....but I'll leave you with this today.....we had the 23.75 area marked as a long term Auction high from yesterdays thread. We also had the last low volume area from yesterday thread marked at 1217.

That news event spike blew through the 1217 without a retest at first . Some may have been thinking that my volume idea was going to fail and the 1217 was going to be passed on by. I was thinking that myself. Once we started to get back under the 23.75 long term bracket then you owed it to yourself to start thinking about the 1217 again...

main numbers as I type going into tomorrows trade will be

93.75 - 95

1202 - 1204

1207 - 1208


and 1213.75 - 1215.25 but I'm not sure that this won't be filled in before we close...we'll see

good luck!