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ES Tuesday 10-18-11


We are declining into a big bell curve that is bounded by the 94 - 95 and the 85.25 - 86....everything in between those areas is just high volume consolidation. As usual the trades we take will be based on where we open in the day session.

Other areas of interest are the 1202.50 - 1205 and then 1209 - 1211.25.

Below we have 80 - 81 and 75 - 76. You can scroll back and see previous days entries and charts but I'd really like anyone reading to find the areas on their own if they find value in these trade concepts. We don't want to depend on anyone to derive our areas.
i do

Originally posted by BruceM

Nick..do u have low volume from today still at 94 ?
interesting that is what I have (dtn - iq)but I run a very "interesting" version of market delta....My IB data was showing the same...Oh Lorn !!!! when u have a chance perhaps you tok notice of the volume POC's early on today...
Originally posted by NickP

i am using dtn-iq....now we agree on the 96.5 and 89.5ish as second peak...but when you mentioned 95 as peak it was not even close...89.5 was peak

anyway, just wanted to confirm i was not missing anything...data varies across vendors of course

congrats on your trading

Originally posted by BruceM

what data feed..? U are using volume and not TPO's? Sorry but have to ask..I now have peak volume at 96.50 and secondary peak volume is 89.75...can anyone confirm..?
Originally posted by NickP

fine, even during rth i see 89.5 as peak volume, with 91 a close second...that is why i asked the question


My hunt begins now..."earl" is gonna have to wait...!
FWIW, KT projection from 1186.25-1192.75 gives a full projection of 1203.25
on the 02.75..once again it may take muliple pops...all the way to 1205...targeting micro gap at 1200.50 first ...then will try for hour highs
we crushed them today...hope some know why and where and took the trades today....98.75 is low volume too at that hour highs....flat ...
bruce, a little unclear on the second long you took, the one around 90 you mentioned...was that just a mean reversion trade to the peak volume you were seeing at 95 at the time ?

Originally posted by BruceM

we crushed them today...hope some know why and where and took the trades today....98.75 is low volume too at that hour highs....flat ...
peak volume being above the outter edge of the key distribution is good for longs so far..but it doesn't mean that we can't trade our zones like the 02.50 - 05...


the battle comes with the peak volume from Monday...we are below that peak volume....so we may just chop around between the two peak volume zones from yesterday and todays developing VPOC


being below yestedays peak volume implies that volume is being created lower today....so that is NOT a good thing for longer term longs IMHO...we'd relly need to see Volume shift above 1200 - 1201 to put longs in a longer term drivers seat!!

I think they want to test 96.50 again!!
excellent Nick...yes...I had low volume..developing at 87.75 and I "Knew" ...lol that the peak volume of 91.50 from Thursday would need some work.....a bit agressive but we also had our key 85 - 86 area....I had no signal near 90 as per my delta but got one at 88.75....the peak volume above was another bonus as was the air pocket at 93.75 that still existed...and we know the zone blow throughs get retested...lots of reasons to lok long and avoid sells
Originally posted by NickP

bruce, a little unclear on the second long you took, the one around 90 you mentioned...was that just a mean reversion trade to the peak volume you were seeing at 95 at the time ?

Originally posted by BruceM

we crushed them today...hope some know why and where and took the trades today....98.75 is low volume too at that hour highs....flat ...

much appreciated

Originally posted by BruceM

excellent Nick...yes...I had low volume..developing at 87.75 and I "Knew" ...lol that the peak volume of 91.50 from Thursday would need some work.....a bit agressive but we also had our key 85 - 86 area....I had no signal near 90 as per my delta but got one at 88.75....the peak volume above was another bonus as was the air pocket at 93.75 that still existed...and we know the zone blow throughs get retested...lots of reasons to lok long and avoid sells
Originally posted by NickP

bruce, a little unclear on the second long you took, the one around 90 you mentioned...was that just a mean reversion trade to the peak volume you were seeing at 95 at the time ?

Originally posted by BruceM

we crushed them today...hope some know why and where and took the trades today....98.75 is low volume too at that hour highs....flat ...


I'm burned out from forum life...LOL....but I'll leave you with this today.....we had the 23.75 area marked as a long term Auction high from yesterdays thread. We also had the last low volume area from yesterday thread marked at 1217.

That news event spike blew through the 1217 without a retest at first . Some may have been thinking that my volume idea was going to fail and the 1217 was going to be passed on by. I was thinking that myself. Once we started to get back under the 23.75 long term bracket then you owed it to yourself to start thinking about the 1217 again...

main numbers as I type going into tomorrows trade will be

93.75 - 95

1202 - 1204

1207 - 1208


and 1213.75 - 1215.25 but I'm not sure that this won't be filled in before we close...we'll see

good luck!