ES WED 10/19/2011

BruceM | 18-Oct-2011 at 4:06 PM | Rep: 47.8k | Posts: 10.6k | mail
I'm burned out from forum life...LOL....but I'll leave you with this today.....we had the 23.75 area marked as a long term Auction high from yesterdays thread. We also had the last low volume area from yesterday thread marked at 1217.

That news event spike blew through the 1217 without a retest at first . Some may have been thinking that my volume idea was going to fail and the 1217 was going to be passed on by. I was thinking that myself. Once we started to get back under the 23.75 long term bracket then you owed it to yourself to start thinking about the 1217 again...

main numbers as I type going into tomorrows trade will be

93.75 - 95

1202 - 1204

1207 - 1208


and 1213.75 - 1215.25 but I'm not sure that this won't be filled in before we close...we'll see

good luck

just learning this method..i say its should test the 13-15 area again..i got question on orders..it seems these key numbers when they are hit move fast..i use limit orders only and guess what didnt get fill at 122525. what orders do you guys/gals use to enter the market..

take care
duck

yes, yes, yes Nick,,,while all are expecting the world to fall apart you are the wise one !! I had to tell u how pleased I am that you saw that and commented on that.....now all we really need to do is resolve this 07 - 08 zone as a possible stumbling block...and the short traders will be smoked...

many took the 02 - 04 zone longs...and everyone should keep in mind that we use context with signals from the footprint or something else..so we don't get smoked too often ourselves

glad u saw that even if it doesn't happen and we get the rare failure today...trends happen in the P.M. but I would still go with the probabilities and expect it to try and fill..it makes good sense

27.25-17.5 yielded a full proj of 1.75, hit to the tick

Originally posted by prestwickdrive

Originally posted by prestwickdrive

KT projection 1225.25-1219.0 gave us a full projection of 1208.75 / 1209.0

nest down projection will go from 1225.25-1217.5 yielding 1205.0

The break of prior low of 1202.75 invalidates any unachieved KT up projections off of it. FWIW, the next down KT projections I was using were from the cycle high to 1218.5 prior to the beige book release to the cycle low 1210.5. Cycle ranges off of news releases are usually golden to work with. That gave an initial projection of 1205.5 which had good confluence with the 25.25-17.5 projection. It also gave a full projection of 1197.5. When dealing with a fairly broad range between initial and full projections I find that the mid point between them very frequently acts as a tradable inflection point. The mid point is 1201.5 which is our low print as I type this.

ES hit 1201 on the 5th E.W. (Elliot wave) a tap before 15:50 and now bouncing back a bit.
ES now trading 1205 @ 15:45
You gays are awesome! Great calls!!!

Originally posted by sandoxe

Nice calls and charts Lisa and Della, you guys nailed!!!
Looks like it's looking for 1201.00 at 200% by 15:50 and possibly 1193. @ 261.8% Fib latte eve.
I think we are making a (5) of three down, now working on 4 and 5 will be at 1201 at 15:50. The market will show me if the count is correct.

ES now trading 1209.00 at 14:49

Originally posted by della

cant fight the trend

yep, was thinking that they had to resolve that 07-08 area (although i did not mention it) before they tried anything in the area above

as i say many times bruce, your teachings do get through, so kudos to you for your efforts

Originally posted by BruceM

yes, yes, yes Nick,,,while all are expecting the world to fall apart you are the wise one !! I had to tell u how pleased I am that you saw that and commented on that.....now all we really need to do is resolve this 07 - 08 zone as a possible stumbling block...and the short traders will be smoked...

many took the 02 - 04 zone longs...and everyone should keep in mind that we use context with signals from the footprint or something else..so we don't get smoked too often ourselves

glad u saw that even if it doesn't happen and we get the rare failure today...trends happen in the P.M. but I would still go with the probabilities and expect it to fill..it makes good sense

Good one!

Originally posted by apk781

27.25-17.5 yielded a full proj of 1.75, hit to the tick

Originally posted by prestwickdrive

Originally posted by prestwickdrive

KT projection 1225.25-1219.0 gave us a full projection of 1208.75 / 1209.0

nest down projection will go from 1225.25-1217.5 yielding 1205.0

fwiw the 1212 level needs to be retaken for anything positive(62% level) with 1215 area above
having said that, straight down a possibility not to be ignored if 1198-1200 lost by my methods

I generally use market orders to avoid being left out. If I'm wrong I had reason to take the trade. I generally don't go for less than 4 tick targets. Not lately anyway.

Thanks Nick...

For those who did their homework coming into today you would of had the:

1213 - 1215.50 to look for longs on a higher open

1223.75 - 1225.25 to look for shorts on a lower open


1202-1204.50 to look for longs on trade entering from above


"The first test is the best test" so the 1213 - 1215.50 worked but we cannot deny that it didn't fill in the way it should. It didn't work outside of the first 90 minutes of trade and it didnot work the SECOND time through. It also didn't work because of a report that happened at 2 PM...All useful statistics to keep track of.

I didn't put 07 - 08 on my list today because it was the POC as per time but more important to me is that it had these ugly high volume nodes just slightly above and below it...I just didn't like it but it certainly was useable for those who did.

The nice thing about zones that don't fill in as they should is it gives us a nice area to use going forward. So we have a nice zone that sits up at the 1213-1215 area.

Originally posted by NickP

yep, was thinking that they had to resolve that 07-08 area (although i did not mention it) before they tried anything in the area above

as i say many times bruce, your teachings do get through, so kudos to you for your efforts

Originally posted by BruceM

yes, yes, yes Nick,,,while all are expecting the world to fall apart you are the wise one !! I had to tell u how pleased I am that you saw that and commented on that.....now all we really need to do is resolve this 07 - 08 zone as a possible stumbling block...and the short traders will be smoked...

many took the 02 - 04 zone longs...and everyone should keep in mind that we use context with signals from the footprint or something else..so we don't get smoked too often ourselves

glad u saw that even if it doesn't happen and we get the rare failure today...trends happen in the P.M. but I would still go with the probabilities and expect it to fill..it makes good sense

I'm with u David...I just go market..I'm not conerned about losing a tic or two....it sure beats missing the trades..

I exclusively use a 1-tick tick chart and try to capture 1 tick always using market orders for both entry and exit ... no stops - ever.