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ES Wed 10-26-2011


i would not trust these numbers. i am new at picking key numbers. also i dont know how you people post and trade at the same time. my hat is off to you. just maybe someday i could do the same.

ok here what i got

1250-52.5
1240-42.5
1234.5-36.5
1225-27.5
1214-1216
1206-08
1200-02

take care
duck
Paul's Monday range projection has now been reached.

.618 of Monday range = 1224 reached yesterday.

1.00 of Monday range = 1217.25 reached now.
I agree with you NickP.

When I looked at RTH only VP from yesterday, LV was not until above 40. However, here is something I feel compelled to point out: This is basic chart reading, basic price pattern trading (where I cut my teeth).

When there is a swing failure like yesterday's PA at the bar completing at 3:05pm (swing H = 1236.25) and there was another swing failure (failure to move higher) at 1:25pm (high print was 1239.50) there is a tendency for prices to move back to those levels.

I blindly traded them for years. Now, with Bruce's comments about the VP, I understand how a different set of technical eyes can view the same price level as a potential reversal point.

But I also have to say that by its very nature, a HOD will have less volume at price because that proved to be the inflection point, plain as day on a chart, it's the H of the Day. That was the price level where many longs said, that's enough for me, don't want to be a pig and they abandoned long positions.

I continue to study the VP situations with the great observations Bruce has given us.
It is a valid observation to understand that when there is a swing failure High, and it is accompanied by low volume, you have recognize that it took very few sellers to turn prices lower. That, I think is putting a face to the PA and VP. It took fewer sellers to turn prices lower.

MY own observations of raw volume (per bar not per price) is that successful bo9ttoms need some sort of volume participation as the weak hands deliver to the strong hands.

BTW, 1217 ius S1 for today (calc based on RTH only. R1 for today same RTH only method was 1239.00, hmmmmmmm
Originally posted by prestwickdrive

Using KT, 39.75-34 projects 24.75; 39.75-33.25 projects 22.75

next downside KT projection was 39.75-25.75 giving an initial of 1217.0 and a full of 1203.0
it is amazing how numbers match, i also was looking at the full proj of the move yesterday from 54.5 to 40.25 which gave 17.25 and the move today from 39.75 to 25.75 which also gave 17 as initial projection

Originally posted by Lorn

Paul's Monday range projection has now been reached.

.618 of Monday range = 1224 reached yesterday.

1.00 of Monday range = 1217.25 reached now.
just a note if we take out the lows, yest RTH open 15 min range 100% tgt is 1211, and today 60 min range tgt 1211, Thurs 4pm settle price was 1210.5
we have two sets of single prints so my runners are trying to get second set of singles to fill.

Regarding my 36 sell comments earlier: We had an afternoon pull back high at 36.75 and I had peak volume from yesterday at 35 and 32....so I was looking to sell above that afternoon pullback high expecting price to try and pull back to peak volume ( the center of the bell curves).....Dalton and raschke both write about this for whatever that is worth....noted as the last hour high or low by raschke if we omitt the last 15 minutes that the futures stay open beyond the cash session
whenever we drive away from peak volume we need to monitor to see if that buying or selling can be sustained for a real breakout...I don't want anyone to think that I only trade at the low volume areas....it's just that those are my preferred areas and offer the best risk/reward that i know of..

peak volume today is at 28.25...smack in the middle of todays range...should be good for that single print fill in as it will also be a magnet to help pull up price...
this push now needs to go fill in that single print or else 19.75 will take my runners out....target is 24.75 on finals

best buys will come if they crack that 90 minute low and try to create a third set of single prints into our 13 - 15 zone ...then if we get an air pocket inside that zone would be the best sign to look for longs
Bruce, I have last single at 25.50. is that same on your chart?
25.5 and 33 are the single prints i see

Originally posted by Lisa P

Bruce, I have last single at 25.50. is that same on your chart?
Y, I agree.. it turned out to be a wash trade for me... I shorted 2 at 38/38.75, took one off for a nice profit, added 1 again back up and got stopped out on both....

the primary reasoning was LV, HOD and DX was basing with strong ledge support underneath so a runaway to the upside seemed less likely to me but got stopped out never the less...

BTW - a few other traders got 42.50 as a number, one was an old POC from Dec2010, another had doubles up there... My question is are doubles significant? Are old POC and value areas going that far back still potent?