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YMZ1, (3, -1) formula, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 November 2011


14 November A session: Short YMZ1 at 1.618% of the Stretch (52 x 1.618% = 84) calculation. Basis trading from unchanged, short 12196 (12112 + 84). The downside target is 12040, but I may take a profit at the test of unchanged, and then look for the next entry. The pivot point is 12026. The (3, -1) strategy has captured most of the day's range for five of the last eight trading sessions. The other three trading days were uni-directional days with lows within 0.382% of the Stretch calculation basis the previous settlement.

Veteran's Day, 11 November:
YMZ1 (December $5 Dow futures) printed a strong uni-direction price rally on low volume and settled at 12101 (bid), +246 points. Low volume holiday rallies are dubious, at best in the volatile global markets.

10 November: YMZ1 (December $5 Dow futures) trading the (3, -1) formula strategy from unchanged: Faded the first move down at -1.618 (11735 - 71 = 11664). 11661 = low, which represents (-1) of (3, -1). 11664 + 71 + 71 + 71 = 11887. 11924 = high (so far), which high price print satisfies the (3) of (3, -1).

9 November: Basis trading YMZ1 (December $5 Dow futures)... uni-directional day, closing lower, -378 points.

8 November: Basis trading YMZ1 (December $5 Dow futures) from unchanged and applying the (3, -1) formula, ... the A session retraced lower from the 7 November high, 12023, by the 74 points, i.e., the 8 November 1.618% of the Stretch calculation, 12023 - 74 = 11949. 11940 was the 8 November low (ten ticks = $50 risk). That retraceal to 11940 was the (-1) of (3, -1). From that low, 11940 + 74 + 74 + 74 = 12162. 8 November high was 12144, missing the upside projected price target by eighteen points ($90). This nearly achieved the (3) of the (3, -1) formula. HOWEVER, trading YMZ1 from unchanged (usally trading from unchanged) and applying the (3, -1) formula, less the 8 November Stretch calculation (46), i.e., 12007 - 46 = 11961, (11940 = low, risking $110), satisfied the (-1) of (3, -1), wherein the faded trade strategy achieved the (3) of the (3, -1) formula. The (3) of (3, -1) price projection printed as follows: 11961 + 46 + 46 + 46 = 12099 = 138 points ($690 per contract risking $110). Therein is the (3, -1) price projection formula.

7 November: Basis YMZ1 (December $5 Dow futures) and the (3, -1) formula ... trading from unchanged, faded the 1.618% of the Stretch, 11941 + 67 = 12008, projecting that as the (-1) of the (3, -1) formula, which was followed by the (3) of (3, -1), i.e., 12008 - 67 -67 - 67 = 11807. 11786 = low. (Yeah that's a run-on sentence, but "what do you want for nuthin? A rubber bisquit?") The projected price to fade was ten points (risking $55) below the high. And the projected low was 21 (risking $105) above the actual print low, 11786.

4 November: YMZ1 short strategy price projection basis the (3, -1) formula: Trading from unchanged, 11976, ... 11976 + the Stretch calcuation = 11976 + 40 = 12015 (4 Nov high = 12008, seven points below the projected short, i.e., 12015). Because of the Italy and Greek crisis, started the (3) of (3, -1) triple Stretch calculation lower at unchanged, i.e., measured the (3) of (3, -1) decline from unchanged (11976), 11976 - 40 -40 -40 = 11856. There it is, the (3, -1) formula price action projection achieved, again. (See: Trading Strategies and Set Ups for the previous posts projecting price action reversals that were achieved using the (3, -1) formula).

3 November: Basis intra-day trading YMZ1 (December e-mini $5 Dow futures) was characterized as a uni-directional trading day, i.e., +210 points from the low to the close.

2 November: Basis Intra-day trading YMZ1 (December e-mini $5 Dow futures) from unchanged and targeting price rotation projections that apply 1.618% of the Stretch calculation to the (3, -1) formula (1.618% of the Stretch was applied because the Stretch was only 29 points:
11682 - 46 = 11636 (11617 = low as of 11:44PDT), i.e., (-1) of (3,-1).
11636 + 46 + 46 + 46 = 11774 [11636 + 46 + 46 + 46 + 46 = 11820 ... 11818 = high as of 11:44PDT], i.e., (3) of (3, -1).
Offset YMZ1 (December $5 Dow futures) 12196 short at 12176. YMZ1 started basing around 12161 and 12163 (Stretch above unchanged, 12112 + 52 = 12164 ). I also calculated the offset basis the first minute range, 74 pts, ... gap higher 12129 to 12203 = 74 pts ... 74 x .618 = 45 (12203 - 45 = 12158 giving reason to look for basing price action around 12158 and additionally, 74 x .382 = 28 ... 12203 - 28 = 12175 more reason to assess basing around 12158 - 12175.) Took a small profit before prices returned to the entry price, 12196. +20 pts = 20% profit basis $500 intra-day margin.