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YMZ1, (3, -1) formula, 15, 16, 17, and 18 Nov 2011


15 November projected a price trend reversal from the (3, -1) formula to the couneter trending aspect of that formula, which printed during the 16 November A & B sessions. 17 and 18 November returned to projecting price measurements basis the (3, -1) formula.

YMZ1, (3, -1) then, (3, -1), (3, -2) and (3, -3) counter trending 15, 16, 17, 18 Nov 2011

If you are curious about the (3, -1) formula's recent performance for November, click:
http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/7083/-1/ymz1-3-1-formula-stretch-2-3-4-7-8-9-10-11-and-14-nov-2011

... or for the (3, -1) formula's latter half of October performance, click:
http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/7033/-1/ymz1-3-1-formula-stretch-price-rotations-oct-6-13-14-17-18-19-24-25

18 November: Basis intra-day trading December $5 Dow futures (YMZ1) from unchanged, 11739, and fading 11739 by the Stretch, the fading price projection over-shot the low, i.e., 11685 (11696 = low). HOWEVER, and this is an important aspect of the (3, -1) intra-day trading technique, include the previous session's last half hour (approximately) ... in this case that price high to project into the next A ssession indicated a level to fade that was a few points above that 11685 target, i.e., 11712. 11696 + 54 + 54 + 54 = 11858. 11859 = high print for 18 November 2011. Sometimes it is necessary to measure from the low to take profits within the parameters set by the (3, -1) formula. A prudent trader does not expect to capture nearly 200% on their money everyday (YMZ1 intra-day margin = $500 and YMZ1 price action tends to print directly or inversely around 4.25% of the Stretch) tend by entering nearly at the bottom and offsetting nearly at the top. The (3, -1) strategy is meant to provide guidelines where a significant part of the day's range will produce enough price action to produce tradeable probabilities in this trading environment.

17 November: December $5 Dow futures (YMZ1), did successfully achieve the price move projection with the (3, -1) formula. Fading the first move, i.e,. unchanged + Stretch = 11909. Projected reward : risk ratio ... $960 : $105.
Actual print: 11845 + 89 points = 11931. 11931 - 64 - 64 -64 = 11739. 11643 = low.
Additionally: 11931 - 89 -89 -89 = 11664. 11643 = low.

16 November: Trading the (3, -1) formula would have produced losses basis trading YMZ1 (December $5 Dow futures (YMZ1). The counter trend move was projected in the 15 November (17:51PDT) post. The first price rotation, -129 points, declined to the low, 11909, testing the 15 November low, 11916. 12038 - Stretch = 12038 - 65 = 11973. (3, -1) failed to print, however, the 15 November post projected that it would fail to print. The 16 November Stretch was 58 points, and 1.618% of that that Stretch calculation was 93 points. Fading that move from the i.e., 15 November settlement, 12038 - 11909 (-129 pionts) and adding the Stretch calculation to 11909... 11909 + 65 + 65 + 65 = 12104. 12083 was the high. The 11909 price low was the test of the previous day's low, 11916. Therefore trading support from the low of the prior day was a strong indication for support considering the first price move low to 11909 (15 November 21:46, A session trading for 16 November). Bottom line, other than buying that low, which was a good trade, 16 November chopped around the 1.618% (93 points) and 2.618% (151 points) of the Stretch calculations, i.e., -129 points, +172 points (2.618% Stretch = 170 points), -153 points, +86 points (Stretch = 65 points), -91 points (1.618% Stretch = 105 points) and + 160 points (2.618% Stretch = 170 points). All produced tradeable opportunities, but the (3, -1) trending formula would have produced losses. Note the intra-day strategy of fading the decline to within a few points (11909) of the 15 November low, 11916, or fading the test of the early 16 November high, i.e., A session high, 12081 and B session 12083; both produced strong signals if technical analysis was applied.

15 November: YMZ1 (December $5 $5 Dow futures) projected a near term change from the trending (3, -1) formula to the counter trending (3, -1), (3, -2) and (3, -3) aspect of the same formula.

See the 15 November post:

http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/7087/-1/ymz1-3-1-trending-formula-3-1-3-2-3-3-counter-trending-price