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ES Monday 12-19-11


Major targets are 1212.50 , 1206 and 1233 - 1235 so I am looking to frame the market with those in mind . As I type I am looking at 1218.50 - 1220.50 as a resistance area and am looking to sell up here. This includes Fridays VA high and a volume node before it flipped down on Friday. The weekly pivot and current Overnight high are up here too.

Any short fades from here will have to contend with the low volume area at the 15.75-16.25 from Friday. That is the edge of the bell curve. Sellers have been having trouble attracting price down the last three days and if we combine those days then we have a big volume node at 1212.50.....so in general we can use 1212.50 - 1215.75 as a key support zone and/or a target.

We can use the peak volume prices and the day/overnight ranges to try and determine which major targets will hit. Then bring in the open and a true range function to determine if the day session ranges have enough on them to reach the targets as planned. For example, an open in the day session near 1218 could easily reach the 1206 and/or the 1233 areas based on current ranges. The real trick is holding for such targets!

Above the current O/N highs I have low volume zones at 1224 - 25.50, 1229.75 and 1232.50. If I have longs then I will be real careful up there and trying to hold out for the 1233 - 1235 magnet may be a challenge.

Just because we have these "targets" doesn't change the concept of selling into low volume if we rally up to it from below or trying to buy low volume if we drop down to it from above. The targets are only a means for me to try and hold for a longer term moves. Below the 1206 I'll be watching last weeks lows at 1202 and the 1197.

I hope all do well today
try pages 75-76
will be looking for longs again from 02.50 all the way down to overnight lows.....using the 06 and 09 for targets
good call bruce